It looks like the Fall Surge is coming

~ Florida has always been a popular place for people freezing in the northeast. How because of the exodus from New York I understand Florida is a home seller's market !

 

Ya people locally are selling fast and over asking price, it's pretty agressive. Builders are running full steam. Good for the city, collecting impact fees, sales tax, etc.

The combo of covid & riots are motivating people to move away to quieter corners of the world like mine.

Is anyone else seeing a massive remodeling push in their area? It's a bit crazy with kitchen, bathroom, flooring remodels, new paint & landscaping all around me. I wasn't expecting this much.

 

~ I just had some work done on the house I own in Stuart FL. Time to sell ...

 

Sure it does . If the tests were no good there would be no correlation between them and deaths.

 

Just because you don't understand them does not mean they are wrong.

 

Could we fix that with a lockdown?

 

Once these people get a talking point they don't let go of it even if they don't understand it. They keep talking about lockdowns when no states are currently locked down and there are no plans to bring back the lockdowns.

 

Pray tell, what states are still locked down??? Why are you guys still talking about lockdowns? It happened in the spring and then all states opened up (to slightly different degrees).

 

Actually about 20% of NY deaths were in nursing homes while FL. had 22%.

 

It's basic mathematics. If you test 100 people and get 10 positives, statistics dictate that if you test 1,000, you will get 100 positives, give or take. It's just that simple.

 

No, it's not. If the percentage of positive tests is also going up, the number of hospitalizations too, and the number of deaths too, we know that the increase in the number of positive cases is only PARTIALLY due to more testing, but also reflects a REAL increase in real-life infections, tested or not.

See, using your example, if you test 100 people and get 10 positives, then you test 1,000 people and get 250 positives, then sure, you found more cases by testing, but the increase from 10% of positivity to 25% of positivity ALSO indicates a real increase in the number of cases. Get it?

If the number of new cases remained stationary or decreasing, by testing more you'd see this percentage of positives dropping, not increasing.

 

LOL you still don't understand basic statistics!

 

Your math is not wrong. But there are unknowns about this virus that NOBODY understands. Not me, not you, not even the scientists that Biden seems to think know everything there is or ever will be to know. And it seems to have a mind of it's own.

You see, I live in Florida, and it was barely a month ago that we were seeing 10-11k new infections per week. Now, that number is about 1k, sometimes 10-20% less, with roughly a 5% positivity rate, and seems to continue to fall. Though measuring it day to day is a poor way to do it, when 7 day rolling averages (or more) make a hell of a lot more sense. We were the butt of many jokes and memes, and the politically charged accusations were that it was because we "opened too early" because our Gov is "Trump's lap dog". But now restaurants are allowed to go to 100% capacity, and bars are at the State level as well, though local level officials (and of course individual owners) are allowed to limit that should they choose. I haven't been paying that close attention to the news for the past few days, so I don't know what those local leaders have decided, if they've even decided anything at all.

So what changed? Why did we go from being the worst in the nation a month ago to being at, or at least close to, the very best? To the best of my knowledge nobody has a clue. We didn't change our mask rules, or social distancing, or anything else. The lockdown restrictions that still existed have only gotten looser. Shouldn't we be getting even worse?

Statistically, yes, we should. But reality trumps statistics, and the reality is as I outlined above. Not one person, from a simple layman to the most brilliant scientists, can answer that question.

Is it going to get worse as we get into the fall and winter months? Going by the behavior of other common viruses, yes. But this bug doesn't seem to want to act like a common virus, so who knows? Not this guy. This thing doesn't have a mind, but at the same time it seems to have a mind of it's own. Our first and biggest mistake was to allow this to become a political issue (and continue being one) in the first place. It's not, despite what Biden's campaign ads say.

What I'd like to see is what 2020's overall death statistics look like compared to what would have otherwise been expected if Covid never showed up. Unfortunately, we won't have those numbers until well into 2021. If they haven't changed by any significant margin, what that tells me is that most so-called Covid deaths would likely have happened anyway, and given the age of most victims, that's not an unreasonable hypothesis. But it's just that, a reasonable hypothesis that we need those 2020 numbers that do not yet exist to know if it's even worth exploring as possibly valid.

Anyway, I got on a rant, so I'll cut myself off for now.

 

If you look at what happened it's pretty straight forward.
Florida's positives go down to around 5% when they started to reopen. When they reopened it ran up into the 20's. The things that seemed to have made it come down was closing bars again and adding masks to the equation.
So here is Florida reopening again with 5% positives with the only thing different being masks. Maybe it will work maybe it won't.
This same story has been repeated by Texas, Georgia and Arizona.
CDC has published excess deaths.

 

Perhaps we could fix the number of people dying at home from a heart attack by stopping the "Covid Panic" narrative in public, reduce the new fear of going to the hospital, and treat everyone who needs treatment instead of saving empty beds for the Covid patients who are not showing up in the expected numbers.

 

Texas still isn't completely open and we are one of the states which has been among the least draconian.

 

Hmmm. Maybe NY should have counted all of their deaths. NY is being sued by claiming that there were 11,000 nursing home deaths, not the 6,000 reported.

Even with undercounting, NY lost more nursing home residents, based on residents per 100,000 residents in homes than Florida.



https://gothamist.com/news/full-scope-nys-nursing-home-covid-death-toll-still-unknown

 

That is what will separate most of the wheat from the chaff, with the chaff being bogus data. CDC has only finalized 2017 mortality numbers, so we may go out to 2023 for this year's data but the preliminary estimates should be telling. I would expect there to be a spike of excess deaths, but much of that will be untreated heart, kidney, stoke victims, overdoses and suicide. How many of those people who are dying at home will be counted as "probable Covid" at the end of the completed numbers? We'll probably never know the real truth.

 

Gregg Abbott ended up promoting Taiwan’s “Let’s Keep Working Strategy;

Keep working
Keep your distance
Keep wearing masks

And said proven strategy has been repudiated by the below average intelligent people.

 

~ That would be the mayors and governors on their authoritarian fix.

 

Yes, the keep working strategy has been repudiated by the "below average intelligent people": Democrat leaders and their media arm.

Texas dashboard.




At this point, it seems likely that enough people have been inoculated through exposure to the virus to end the panic. That inoculation applies to authoritative states like NY and other northeastern states as well as to Tawain-like "Let's Keep Working" states such as Texas and Florida.

 

Fantasies expressed on the internet based on the gross deceptions of Fauci & Friends are a dime-a-dozen. Many posters express admiration for the Emperor's New Clothes incessantly. We have the government we deserve.

 

frankly, in FL, we've had very high mask wearing from what I've seen since late May, its now October. The virus simply worked its way through areas that it hadn't worked its way through before with a greater concentration in highly populated areas. Then it just slowed down as we gradually gained immunity and made minor adjustments to our activities. Most states that dodged the first bullet got caught the 2nd time or 3rd time through, that's how it seems to work, you can slow it down but you can't stop it.

 

The thing is, if a test is great and catches 99% of positives there will be correlation between deaths and positive tests. If a test stinks and only catches 20% of positives there will be correlation between deaths and positive tests.

 

California, Arizona, Texas, Florida, all had to back-pedal so to speak.

Said State’s second waves were avoidable....LESSON LEARNED!

Thus, who were responsible for increasing Texas Covid19 death toll from;

May 20th; 1,500
Sep 30th; 16,000

Answer; the below average intelligent people