It Might As Well Rain Until September

It looks very much as if the ALP is going to lose government in September and to be pretty well put into opposition with numbers that will see the House of Reps dominated by the Coalition. I have no idea what the Senate is going to look like.

We are going to lose a government that has put in place some very useful policies. Remember this government has been in minority since the last election. In that election in August 2010 the Coalition took 73 seats, the ALP 72 and as we know the ALP has governed in minority with the agreement of the Greens and some Independents http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2010/2010reps1.txt

And just on Independents, don't I wish we could clone Tony Windsor.

Anyway, the ALP has governed in minority since August 2010 and still has managed to achieve great policy changes in Australia.

Australia's heavily right wing media has been very unkind to the ALP in government. The Murdoch press has run a relentless propaganda campaign and even Fairfax has been less then reasonable at times. Sydney's right wing shock jocks have been pumping anti-ALP propaganda into the Sydney listening area and other state capitals have similar media outlets doing much the same, although I don't think many of the other state capitals have the sort of shock jocks that are operating in Sydney.

To be fair the ALP has harmed itself. The chaotic Rudd government was replaced by the ALP. This has been represented by the right wing media as some sort of coup, conspiracy, backstabbing act etc. when it was simply a party in government deciding that its leader and the country's Prime Minister (by convention, not by legislation, a fact that the right wing media have been keen to ignore) had to be replaced due to severe incompetence. If it had happened on a ship at sea the crew and passengers would have applauded; instead the right wing media saw its opportunity to poison the minds of Australian voters by pushing the line that somehow Australia's voters, rather than the party in government, decides who is going to be PM.

I am disappointed in a general way in the ALP. I am disappointed that the Party has become a haven for careerists and party apparatchiks. The alleged antics of certain key figures in the NSW ALP which have been under scrutiny from the NSW ICAC have uncovered a stench in that branch of the Party that needs to be followed and the source of the stench exterminated, politically speaking of course.

I am also disappointed that the Party has folded to immoderate opinion, particularly on the issue of asylum seekers. The Coalition policy under Malcolm Fraser to welcome refugees from Vietnam was a good policy and has benefited Australia. Now we see the Coalition and ALP vying for the most extreme and inhumane policies towards asylum seekers in order to garner the vote in crucial seats in western Sydney. Again the Sydney link. Again the radio shock-jocks.

The only silver lining to come from the predicted September debacle may be that the ALP is forced to take – as HG Nelson would have it - “a good, hard look at itself” afterwards. True, some voices such as Senator John Faulkner have been advocating this but in essence have been thwarted by the careerists and spin doctors who are frightened that they will lose their influence in the party machine and are okay with going into opposition as long as their jobs are safe. Meanwhile the majority of people in Australia are left to the ideology of the Coalition.

Come September there will be no seismic shift in Australian politics, only a loss of government by a political party and that happens at elections. But in the forthcoming term of the Coalition government we will see, at first subtle changes, to be replaced with radical changes produced from the failed ideology of neo-liberal economics. In essence we will be plunged into the same abyss that neo-liberal Europe is in now and we will suffer. Or rather ordinary people and people who are less privileged will suffer. The silvertails will be celebrating.

Will the Coalition get a second term? Possibly. If they can hold themselves back from allowing their ideology to take over in the first term they will probably get a second term. And if that second term is visited by the sort of hubris that overtook John Howard in the period leading up to the 2010 election then we may see a resurgence to victory from an ALP that has found itself again and possibly the sort of crushing defeat for the Coalition that saw the United Australia Party smashed in the general election of 1943.

In Australia there has been and may always may be two political forces which are capable of taking government. Those are Labor and anti-Labor. We are about to see the anti-Labor forces triumph for a while. It will be a fascinating political experiment to see the anti-Labor Coalition in government after the September election. Perhaps then we will see a clearer delineation between Labor and the Coalition. And hopefully that delineation will see Labor in opposition able to recover its principles which have surely been lost during this period of minority government, albeit a period where, against the odds and with the cooperation of the Greens and Independents, it has been able to deliver good government.

 

This government has been a disgrace. It has as much right to call itself Labor as the opposition has to call itself Liberal. In the early days ( Rudd days ) some decent policy was provided, albeit badly implemented, but this Gillard led regime has been an absolute disgrace. They have been too busy juggling back room deals and fights to do what they are payed to do..... run the country. For someone like Abbott, with his past in politics, to be belting them without policy, shows exactly where this Labor party has sunk to.

Don't get on here and spruik how good a government they have been, when they have clearly not been. If they were all you claim them to be, they would be looking forward to another term in office. Instead they are looking down the gun at an absolute belting in September to a party that has not really stated anything or shown any policy. I mean WTF. The Katter party has put more policy forward, and yet your beloved Labor party, the party that has done the people so well, is facing oblivion. ???????????

I guess they are just misunderstood.

 

them most shocking fact is not that my beloved country will soon be governed by an incompetent man, but to learn how far right our media is or has become.
That includes the ABC as well.
The Goebbels like tactics are being paid off, so it seems.

 

Cats, to find a more incompetant shower, you would need to visit a special care facility. I will promise you this though. If whoever gets in on 14th Sept treats us with the contempt that the present mob have, I will devote my life to doing all I can legally and morally, to destroy them politically.

 

So what you are saying Cats is that everyone is wrong, even the Labor party watchdog the ABC. Give me a break. If it smells like sh!t, looks like sh!t, then it is probably SH!T !

By the way even Martin Ferguson is wrong ??

I mean no malice to you Cats when I say...... When a devout Green Party follower is depressed about a Labor Party that is going to lose an election, especially after all their broken promises to your beloved greens, there is obviously a problem with Labor party politics.

 

Great post Diurectic!

Economy wise the only people who reject australias great standing in the world are those who superficially disregard world wide economic standards in the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression. Take for instance Wayne Swans World finance minister of the year award, which had only been won by one other australian....Paul Keating. There are reasons why costello never came close, but hey, you can't beat Australias mainstream media which is virtually monopolised by news limited.

There is a clear indication like no other, that conservative economics has to be questioned, especially during the time of the GFC.

It is plainly obvious that most folk have developed a disgust for Gillard and labor based on the perceived stabbing of Rudd and alleged broken promise regarding the carbon price. These are the fundamental reasons. For those not savvy enough or disinterested in politics are only led by what has been conveyed by a media biased campaign. Gotta give it to Abbott, he could have made everyone believe the Queen was having an affair with the pope.....but not solely on his skill but simple repetition and unrelenting backing by the Murdoch media!

The building education revolution money waste was proven to be a furphy but hey, mr Murdoch had has his own fish to fry and not interested in australias future but his own.

The carbon price was seen by all world economists as the most efficient policy, and was supported by most internal economists! Again Abbott's repetitious lies were carried on the wings by Mr Murdoch.

Australias debt is constantly debated here but without any context regarding the world economy and external pressures.

Bottom line is that it is quite clear that there are 2 sides of the debate here and that is the left and the right! Those who have no leaning are obviously being hoodwinked, those pretending to sit on the fence will continue provide a non factual argument that is simply parroting of Australias obvious biased media, which is in complete disparity of external reporting! So what if Australia for the first time ever received a AAA rating by all world leading rating agencies. Australia is only one of a few of the worlds largest economies to recieve one....only a handful of Australians are aware of this......why?.... It wouldn't have anything to do with Murdoch's personal interests would it!

 

You don`t really believe all that mush do you TV? PMSL

 

I wouldn't say they were good if they weren't, in policy terms I mean. Even in minority and even in the face of a trenchantly hostile media they have managed to get good work done, not that the media are interested in discussing it much. I mean, how seriously can we take a media that rushes away from press conference with the Opposition's Justice spokesperson when they see Rudd making his show entry to the doors at Parliament House? Don't know if you saw it but it was on the 7.30 Report Wednesday night (5 June). There was the spokesperson doing his thing, someone sees Rudd behind him and the media are on Rudd like flies on...sugar. I mean, the Coalition bloke had something to say but it was neglected for the chanced to hear Rudd telling everyone to pull their heads in. That's our media.

Anyway, cos the media won't tell us, then try this:

Job growth between 2007 and now - 960,000 more jobs.
Economic growth in Australia between 2007 and now - 13%
AAA credit rating and low debt
Interest rates at 2.75% from 6.75% in 2007
Climate policy
Education reform policy
NBN

Yes, they are going to be out of government in September and future generations are going to ask WTF? But then future generations aren't around yet, to see the context of this.

I wouldn't be too fussed if I thought the Coalition would actually be any use to the country in government, but they won't be, that's the second tragedy in Australian politics.

 

For what its worth, I don't think much will change, well at least not immediately. For one they will go on a cut and slash to reduce some of the debt. In part they have to..... Lets hope its a little more responsible than newmans effort. You have alluded to the AAA rating, if the debt is not curtailed that rating won't last long. As far as their climate policy is concerned, it really isn't your ar$e or your elbow. It should of been all in or nothing, education reform unfortunately may remain unfinished, unless the Libs have the fortitude and good of the people at heart to finish it off. Even though the NBN seems like a great idea, the shear end cost may make it a lead weight around our necks. The end result is unknown at this stage, but we are too far in now to abandon it, so if we are going to spend billions at least get it right.

Labor always produce policy, but their implementation is always questionable.

But you would be a brainwashed labor tragic to try and defend this current so called labor party. That is the one we currently have in front of us not the one in 2007....... They are poles apart.

The media are fools, ethically compromised. But if you want to watch a left driven television program, tune into the Project. Not too much right love in that show.

You are right, they are going to lose, hopefully not too badly as we need a solid opposition. I have said this before but neither party deserve the peoples vote, neither party gives two hoots for the people.

 

Speculation and innuendo is quite a noticeable argument of yours slippery regarding government policies future outcomes or impacts. Who says the gillard government are bad and how do you draw your conclusions from it? What is your main issue with the Gillard government that makes them so terrible as opposed to the Rudd led government? I find it intriguing that many arguments against the government follow headlines and not official reports or independant expert advise. Seriously, you check out many opposing arguments. I emphasise, I'm not interested in the coalitions outlook or commentary, it simply doesn't cut it. I'm not interested in your own analysis or opinion, speculation and innuendo, unless you can provide evidence of your expertise in the given area. It is easy to say whatever you like without any real substance. I will be convinced of your argument based on expert evidence! Seriously!

 

firstly I am convinced you don't read real well.

Secondly, this is an opinion based forum, as you seem to point out when it suits you.

when you have two of the most respected labor politicians come forward with real concerns for the future of the party under its current direction, which is Gillard led, I think the party might have some issues. Doesn't take brain surgery to work that out. You continually tell the rest of us that the Australian people are smart and can work it out for themselves, well newsflash buddy..... They have and they are saying no.

the problem isn't Rudd, and it isn't Gillard, they were just identifiers for a particular period. The problem is the party itself. The factional fighting that has debilitated what may of been an excellent government has taken its toll. They have made it easy, the opposition has put up nothing, the hardest thing they have had to do is keep big ears quiet. The labor party will lose this next election moreso than the libs will win it.

None of this takes expert opinion, it is there for all to see. Just listen to those that are speaking out, or is Simon Crean and Martin Ferguson been bought by Murdoch as well ?

 

Her English reading and comprehension skills are on par with an 8 year old.

 

Slippery, all discussion is based around evidence of sorts from various sources. You've raised ferguson and crean......what have they stated that indicates the government regarding policy is heading in the wrong direction?

Whatever the internal problems, the government has pressed ahead with implementation of successful and effective policies! There are a few causing issues but on the whole gillard obviously has majority of support from mp's.

 

I will agree that they have pushed ahead with policy, whether they have been successful or effective is really a matter of opinion. As I stated in the earlier post, their education reform should of been introduced earlier so we may of seen the final outcome. We could only hope the new government may continue with it, however I highly doubt it. I also stated that their climate policy wasn't effective because they either go full on or not at all. Where their policy hasn't really appeased anyone.

Labor have always introduced policy, no argument, but it is their success that is debatable, or so it seems.

TV it is their internal issues that are affecting their policy success. It is very hard to argue their policy to the people if they are continually explaining their fractures. I really think you under estimate the effect the Gillard coup on Rudd has had on the public and the trust they have in her.

Again I say they have made it easy for the opposition, as they have given the media so much tabloid to report, and all this takes away from their ability to sell their policy.

Both Crean ( a once major Gillard supporter ) and Ferguson have stated their frustration at the direction the Labor party are headed and that it is no longer the Labor party they first joined. This has been one of the major factors in Fergusons resignation, and he has stated such.

in terms of gillards leadership and how much support she has, we will never really know as dumping a leader after backing them so heavily for so long, would most definately not help.

 

With all policy it is never totally clear what the end result will be, and in the instance of education, you wouldn't think it would be know in the short term! However, all governments obviously rely on tedious research and reporting on all policy costings and projected outcomes. If experts in economics and education/climate are giving the thumbs up along with associated reports, why would there be a need to be concerned! The issue should be about what policy is appropriate and that all depends on what is important for us as the people of this nation. Yes, some policy has a noticeable political leaning! The way I see it, Abbott has simply played every policy as though it is the complete blind creation of the government. The NBN is just a play on costings, which is simply a savings by the opposition on the cost of fibre to the premise! The coalition are costings are 30b as opposed to the governments 40b. Those that listen to Abbott will simply say that this cost will blow out under labor, because he simply gets away with saying it!

What policies haven't been successful and what is the basis for your belief?

It wouldn't have to do with the hoards of journalists looking for great stories? The problem has been obviously leaking of information by Gillard detractors. Now Rudd was doing poorly in the polls, so the reps obviously took the opportunity to rid themselves of his ego- centric and dictatorial leader who was frustrating his caucus. An apparent issue was Rudds handling of the pink batt scheme that mr midnight oil took the wrap for. This was eventually exposed. I thought highly of the guy in the initial days but got a little sick of his seemingly self centred approach.

Abbott made it easier by introducing his style, which was to be unrelentingly negative and I suppose it worked and acknowledge it was a great strategy.

Well, when things are looking glum and desperate it is going to be an attitude you carry IMO. Rudd was still polling good, but the caucus on the whole wouldn't be able to suffer it out. Remember Rudd said he was a changed man, which indicated he acknowledged there were problems with his leadership style.

Your right, but hey, who really knows the full story. It was either her or someone else who was obviously going to make the press forward for the leadership. Politicians have aspirations and many aspirations are to become PM. It was either hers for the offering or somebody else's because it was quite obvious the labor team didnt want Rudd!

 

So tell us Diuretic, have far do you crawl on your belly before hanging your head and begging permission to lick the boots of your labor masters?

 

Don't disagree with much of what you are saying, however you ask me for an example of an unsuccessful policy, keeping in mind I have already stated that success of policy is really in the eye of the beholder. You alluded to the Pink Batts. This was a policy that had to be driven relatively quickly given the circumstances, and in part helped stimulate a workforce. But surely to be deemed successful everything has to be taken into account, and that includes the diabolical roll out of the policy, the well documented deaths attributed to policy mismanagement, and the widespread dumping of unused batts in the environment. For me this policy can not be deemed successful, as the negatives at best equally weigh with the positives.
Then you have the BER, which you believe to be successful, and me not so much. Again eye of the beholder. We had a school in my area that had a six meter by four meter canteen built under the project. It cost in the end $215,000. A 6x 4. Most of the original canteen kitchen was used in the new one. A local builder tendered $ 84,000. Then their was a big hall provided to the state high which cost $730,000, and the same size hall at a private school with brick façade and toilets cost $540,000. Both under the BER, but like most private schools they managed the project through a local builder, the public school had a Sydney construction mob do theirs. The same local builder gave the same tender on both. This is just a small snippet of what I know, and obviously there has been other well documented cases, but as you say they have been through media that you do not trust, so I have left them out. Plus this post would go on for pages. lol. I know of the other two as the builder is my builder. To me this scheme was great idea, but again the mismanagement in my opinion was poor. This was a scheme that did not require the speed of roll out that the batts did, but somehow had the same management issues.
Then you have the Carbon price. Love it or hate it. The problem with this in my opinion looking from a policy point of view is that they have effectively sat in no mans land. For some they have not gone far enough and for the rest they have gone too far. In the end 90 % of the people are disgruntled with it, whatever side they sit on. They had to go for broke and go full implementation, they were going to get slayed regardless, so at least keep 50% of the people happy. Then sell it to the fence sitters, majority solved. What they effectively did was get all the bad press for nothing.

So TV, in my opinion the Labor party has had some great ideas, but their poor management and lack of ability to sell it to the people, along with their eternal in fighting has rendered this party, so it seems, un electable.

In regards to Rudd, I have a relative that worked with him at his pre politics job. He said he was an absolute ogre, no one liked him. So I can fully understand why his colleagues don't want to work with him. In the end Australians have to understand that you elect a party not an individual and under our system individuals are subject to change, including the PM. The problem for Gillard was how it unfolded, seems to be a theme here. Two weeks prior to the coup she stated that she backed Rudd 100%. That obviously ran out fairly quickly. To all of us who madly follow politics realise it is what it is, politics, but to the majority of the electorate it was seen as deceipt, and this TV allowed Abbott to move on his strategy, and moreso allowed it to be successful. From that point on she has always had a credibility issue. Fair ? Maybe, maybe not. So whenever their was a shift in policy direction, she was portrayed to of lied ! Now we all know that policy is never set in stone, it can't be. Policy takes years to come to fruition, at least decent policy does, a lot can happen in between and policy needs to be flexible to cope with those changes.

Gillard is now suffering for taking the easy road. She is reaping what she sowed. She may well of been the next Labor leader, elected by the public, if only she had let Rudd take the election fallout. Instead she took ownership of a minority government, and personally for her that was her biggest mistake. My opinion only. I harbour no ill will to Julia Gillard, she is just another politician that is out of touch with the wider community, doesn't make her a bad person, just a bad politician, and she ain't no Robinson Carusoe there.

In the end TV, my opinion and your opinion is going to mean diddly squat, and in the future you and I will be remonstrating about some other person or party.

It's all just politics !!!

 

I would like to correct you slippery... ON the morning of the change, Gillard on national TV (not you truth..) stated she backed Rudd 100% and not 12 hours later...history was made. That is how quickly it ran out

 

Thanks Garry, must of missed that pledge of loyalty . LOL.

 

If you read the ALP Constitution you'll see there are no masters. Party apparatchiks, careerists, yes, masters no.

 

slipperyfish - in the main, for what it's worth, I agree with many of your points. I think one of the problems with Rudd's government was that it was chaotic and for me at least there was too much symbolism and not enough thinking. Some of the earlier policies and promises such as GroceryWatch were simply ridiculous. It would have been better for people to be informed as to how a consumer-driven capitalist economy works, rather than make the sort of wild promises that Rudd made. Some other policies were good but the implementation was crap, perhaps because the timelines for implementation were too short. Rudd was very much a PM driven by the 24 hour news cycle and not by the need to implement solid policy in a sensible manner. As for his style of leadership - it has been described here and elsewhere and it appears to be fairly egotistical and not at all in accord with Labor culture or even decent administration. He had to go. The right wing media in Australia made Rudd, they were cranky when Labor got rid of him and perpetrated the false idea that the PM was elected by the people therefore the people were dudded. Ah but we're a dim lot.

Even now there are voices raised about bringing Rudd back and he looks like he'll be in it. I don't blame anyone for looking for a saviour at this time, they're worried about their jobs. What would be best though for Labor would be to let it happen as it will, learn from it, purge the Party of the various careerists and apparatchiks as John Robinson has done with McDonald and Obeid in NSW and rebuild itself. But there are other lessons to be learned as well. The factions are going to have to learn to work with each other to build good policy rather than chase numbers in the Parliamentary party. I know, a counsel of perfection, but until that's sorted this sort of eruption within the Party will happen time and time again.

I think history will be kinder to Gillard than are contemporary commentators. Rudd had to be removed, not only was he chaotic, he didn't have the courage of his convictions and his political nous was well off. He made bad strategic decisions as well as bad policy implementation and all the time it was to serve his ego. Gillard has led a minority government and made it last while getting through the Parliament some needed policy changes for the nation. Now we wait for Abbott and the Coalition to see what will befall us.

 

BRAVO One of the best unbiased comments to have ever graced this forum. I always knew you were a person with intelligence and substance BRAVO

 

Well thought out post Diuretic.

I do believe Rudd was policy driven, however it is very hard to steer a car when the wheels want to go in the opposite direction to the driver. There is no doubt he is a megalomaniac, there seems to be solid consensus on this. I think all our politicians are mainstream media driven and in part that is our fault, as this is our preferred medium of information. We believe what we see so it seems.

Totally agree that Labor should let this unfold and rebuild. Only question will be, what Labor do they want to be. The current one is not really resonating with their core constituency, however it is attractive to a new urban educated sector that like the feel good approach. This demographic generally sat with the democrats and has been in limbo since their demise, however the fusion of the two vastly different groups may be difficult to manage into the future. This is a massive decision to be made, and will effect their direction no doubt.

I do agree that Gillard will be noted more kindly in the future. Her biggest flaw has always been communication. Leaving aside her political aspirations for the top job and she came to be, her ability to win the electorate over the way Rudd did has been as crippling as callipers. She was unable to gel her team, I don't think anyone could of pulled them together as the cracks ran very wide and very deep. These cracks have been widening for decades and unfortunately for her they reached their limits while she had control.

My father always said the biggest problem for the ALP is the ALP itself. His words ring loudly.

 

The total percentage of complaints regarding quality and value of entire BER was 3.5%. Again, it suggests to me tricky politics was being played out......the media obviously reported on this. Based on this you would have to think overall the program was a success. The way it was reported and peppered by abbott and co, many were convinced it was prevalent waste!

Where did you get the 90% of people are disgruntled with carbon tax slippery? I thought I read that a majority of people are comfortable with it due to the minimal impacts! Again slippery, you can't underestimate the impact that abbott's scare campaign had on opinions early in the piece, which still remains in some minds! Again, we can only go on expert advise, which indicates this to be the most appropriate action. We can argue about this until the cow comes home but the bottom line is that nearly all, if not all economists support the scheme! Who keeps having the last say on the issue.....abbott!

But letting Rudd take the fallout meant that Australia had to put up with another few years of incompetent egotistical leadership, which by moral obligation required the labor party to take necessary action IMO for the sake of Australia and ensuring appropriate policy implementation. Gillard and the labor party should have been forthcoming with disclosing issues related to rudd's leadership early, but as has been alluded to (which seems to make sense mind you), a right leaning media certainly wouldn't have provided a balanced report on the issue anyway. As you state, abbott's strategy was successful, I agree, but was it ethical? No one cared, the message was out and seared into people's minds, he could do and say whatever he wanted. At the end of the day, you gotta give him credit for how he turned the tables though!

Honestly I believe labor economics is miles ahead as was demonstrated in thread I posted a while back! I'm not at all settled with conservative economics! Australia had simply been convinced the Howard government were economic managers on the basis of a booming economy, without thought that the world was booming. You couldn't go wrong in the short term with a world wide boom! You may call it bias but I call it reasoning!

Yes, we may be remonstrating others in the future, but not with the concern I have of an abbott led government!

 

This country will go down the tubes when that idiot Abbott takes control and steers my country into the depths of Hell.
He will be the worst PM ever, I can see it. He doesn't even have any policies, just claims he will stop the boats, but HOW Tony? HOW will you stop the boats? The boats are a non issue for (*)(*)(*)(*)s sake. Every election the Libs bleat about the same old, same old. Stop the boats, stop the boats blah blah. They have nothing else, just the same old mantra they repeat like a broken record.

I hate Gillard but I would prefer to have her for another ten terms than to have Abbott for even one day. Abbott loves taxes - he can attack the Labor Party for introducing taxes but he will introduce his own which the Libs are sure to defend to the death, after all, their hero comes up with a tax, they have to go into bat for him, don't they? Abbott also doesn't give a (*)(*)(*)(*) about the middle class, or low income earners. He pretends to understand but he doesn't give two hoots. People will see that. They will vote for the Liberal Party and they will get it handed to them, and I will be laughing in their faces because you will have all got what you wanted - more taxes and a country that is so far down the gurgler it will take the second coming of Christ to save it.