Republicans are at it again

Raise taxes. We have a wave of Boomers heading to old age and retirement. Government spending will have to increase as a percentage of GDP until most are gone, likely another 25 years.

 

Some Republicans, yes. Lower-income whites are nativists opposed to immigration.

The "uneducated masses" are cheap labor that overall pays for itself.

 

I disagree. The bottom 50% basically pay close to zero in income taxes even in the fairly rare instances where they are not working under the table. The uneducated masses take far more from the system than they give, especially for undocumented workers, many of whom live in high density housing that does not come close to paying enough property taxes to pay for their children's schooling.

This is not a net positive to the government. You can argue it may be a net positive to the businesses that hire them, but not to the government.

 

Forbes is leftist? Careful, you're in danger of falling off the far right edge of the world.

 

What I said is that Forbes posts a lot of leftist editorials. This is different from calling them leftist. They actually post a lot of editorials from both sides of the aisle. It is not uncommon even remotely to see a leftist editorial in Forbes. They frequently publish from both sides of the aisle which is probably what makes them mostly centrist.

It seems like everytime someone from the left posts a link to Forbes that goes against Conservatives, they always act like this means even Conservatives oppose that issue. It means no such thing. It only means that particular article is from a leftist source.

Majority shares in that Magazine left the Forbes family in 2014, and since, it has not been decidedly Conservative, but many on the left reflexively believe that it still is staunchly Conservative. It is not.

Forbes Media Bias | AllSides
https://www.allsides.com › news-source › forbes
Forbes has a Center media bias rating, meaning it does not predictably publish news or opinion content favoring either side of the political spectrum, or its bias leans left and right equally at different times. About Forbes Forbes is an American business magazine.

 

There may in fact be a few hyper specialized fields where there are shortages that cannot be easily filled. After the salaries for those positions begin to rise, let's see where we are at then. In the meantime our STEM future isn't dependent on bringing in H-1B's.

 

Trying to get good jobs for Americans? You may be right; that ship may have sailed long ago., particularly when you consider the hostility to the idea.

 

The TSMC is going to be state of the art, so no.

 

I don't chase squirrels.

 

But you do chase lame excuses to avoid the obvious.

 

Your claims are too vague and unsupported to evaluate. Better luck next time.

 

There are many ways to balance a budget. The easiest and most helpful way for society is reducing spending by a bunch. The boomers have been on social security for more than a decade already.

 

Sorry, I'm not a used excuse salesman.

 

We've yet to able to sustain taxes at a rate above 17.5% of GDP without a recession following, and then revenues dropping as GDP drops.

You want more tax receipts? Allow for more economic growth.

​

 

Consider this:

"First, although illegal immigration is indeed a boon to the United States, it significantly harms the employment opportunities of domestic workers. Namely, it increases the unemployment rate for domestic workers. Furthermore, it forces them to face a tighter labor market and even to leave the labor force. Second, we quantitatively prove that the long-run level of consumption of domestic citizens has a U-shaped relationship with the share of illegal immigrants. Third, illegal immigration is negative impact on native wages has been found in this framework. This result turns out to be qualitatively consistent with the empirical evidence."​

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15469/1/MPRA_paper_15469.pdf

 

We're fighting over both legal and illegal immigration.

 

Not I. I support legal immigration and I oppose illegal immigration.

 

The reason the tax receipts are increasing before a downturn is the economy is expanding rapidly and the Fed increases interest rates to cool it off. The stock market drops, so we lose capital gains revenue, too.

I'm not arguing for higher taxes except in the sense we have to take care of population bulges that drive up costs for SS, Medicare and Medicaid while the old folks are on their last legs. Once the bulge dies off, the trend line on costs drops down.

We can afford higher taxes without tipping into recession.

 

Well, let's have a look:

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I think you make a good point on the relationship between interest rates and recession. I also think there is a fairly strong correlation between raising rates and recession though I do see a few instances where the Fed managed to raise and then go back down without tipping us over into recession.

But, and this is a very important point. Expansion only causes inflation if demand outpaces supply. If we can increase supply in pace with demand, we can enjoy the higher wages, higher tax receipts, higher standard of living and more modest interest rates as well as strong economic growth. It's when the creation of supply does not keep up with demand that the seeds are sown for the next recession.

Managing the boomer retirement bulge is a key point. One thing I've notice with folks in their final decade or so of work is that they are still aiming for the historic 65 years old to retire when full benefits are not until you are 70. So yes, higher payroll taxes will certainly be part of the mix, but, educating people that they need to be aiming for retirement at 70 rather than 65 reduces that bulge. Experienced workers are quite a bit more productive. It takes 5 new hires to replace 3 retired boomers and right now labor markets are thinner than a cat's ass.

I don't think we can afford higher taxes at the moment. In the real household budget flow there is no difference between higher taxes and higher prices. Without a timely beneficial supply shock we are already recession bound, and that recession will be accompanied by layoffs, which will reduce federal receipts.

Since we have never proven to be able to maintain tax receipts at 17.5% of GDP, I think we should target for 17% and reduce federal expenditures to match. Reducing deficit spending also has a moderating effect fairly indistinguishable from increasing interest rates.

 

- You aren't.
- That you don't "put any stock" in economics proves that.
- What way are we using public money that is unsustainable?
- We are in the midst of serious problems. Right now is the "Storm before the Calm".
- Our national debt is a product of money being created as debt.
- A sentence, generally is one thought. The FED ONLY does the FED favors, tRump must have taken lessons from them. IF, we were to to bring "all the troops home from everywhere" the world would fall into
chaos. The world has, unprecedentedly, been at peace (for the most part) since War 2 BECAUSE the U.S. has made the world safe for trade and unsafe for war. We have the strongest military in the world and it
needs to remain that way for many reasons, our own self interest being one.
- OUR Military has "defended the Nation" continuously, since War 2.
- Since War 2 we have kept the world at peace and prosporous, and no nation has prospered more than we have ... AND ... are.
- IF you want to ignore the fact that we have ARE THE GREATEST NATION the world has EVER known, well, that's the only way you can claim that "it" doesn't contribute to a better life in America.
- Allowing a privliged few to get off paying little or no tax's for the last 40 years IS "the issue".
- These United States are poised better, right now, to continue being the most prosperous Nation on Earth, like never before. The reports of our demise have been greatly exaggerated ... IF ... we AmeriCANs can
unite instead of ... fight ... each other.
You are unable to use "common sense" because you've made up your mind using "alternative facts".

 

Boomers average about 65, so many have SS in their future. Ditto Medicare. Half of Medicaid goes to keep indigents in skilled nursing care.

Reducing spending will be difficult. Medicare and Medicaid, but especially Medicare, is the budget bustrt.

 

Very good! The Fed is sometimes accused of acting too slowly (raising rates too late and having to go even higher to kill inflation). Sometimes we slipped into recession because of a tardy Fed.

True.

It's actually a process of matching the increase in the demand to the increase in supply.

A lot of people are no longer physically capable of working. Or they're intent on retiring.

Depends on the job.

Aggregate demand drops.

You can see spending on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security will have to increase because of Boomers hitting old age.

 

Companies are interested in the bottom line.

 

We (meaning the entire country) are fighting over immigration, both legal and illegal.

 

I disagree. I think the impression on the left is that conservatives don't want immigration. What they don't want is illegal immigration. I've never me a single person that doesn't support legal immigration. Most of us descended from legal immigrants.