Smart money is on Republicans keeping control of House, betting site odds say

That is a night to remember. The wife and I were sitting here and I was sipping whiskey. We laughed so hard switching back and forth between MSNBC and CNN.

 

I did not have any whiskey that night. I have some scotch now though. Might sip some. Not much though. LOL

 

I'm not feeding into the hype anymore ... (D)'s winning the House couldn't be less consequential for conservatives. The hype, being the DNC narrative that liberals can impeach Trump, reverse his policies, and create a liberal 11 member SCOTUS, is purely designed to hoodwink the democratic rubes. Zero chance (D)'s bills get past the Senate. Zero chance Trump wouldn't veto them anyway. Mid-terms can only produce more liberal frustration. That's a fact.

 

Only because libs will grasp at any straw MSM holds out. (D)'s won't even mention the Senate. How does the DNC get bills passed in the Senate? How do they get 2/3 to override a veto? 2 more yrs of nothing but Trump brand legislation is what's on the horizon. Possibly 6 more yrs. and that's not even a point of dispute. Senate? Crickets ...

 

No. That's not what happened with obama. You saw a right wing insurgency fueled by koch dollars to smear and slander a president before he had a chance to even be president.

 

Paddy Power don't have any special insight, they just reflect where money has gone. If the betting public have got it completely wrong then Paddy Power's odds would reflect that.......

 

Utah 4th District - Love vs. McAdams KUTV/Dixie Strategies McAdams 50, Love 43 McAdams +7

IF this number is correct and holds through next week, then the GOP have a real problem going ahead.

 

Probably explains why obama lost control of congress so quickly. What was it, something like 1200 seats total?

 

Obama was not divisive when he was elected. The sole reason you lot insist he was, can you explain?

 

Use the same reasons the lefties dislike Trump.

 

Did Obama hire illegals to build towers with his name on them?

Did Obama use racist memes and absurd slash and burn tactics to deny native americans the chance to have casinos in NJ?

Did Obama hire illegals to man vineyards with his name on them?

Here's the issue with Trump. He is profiteering off the presidency. Emoluments clause exist for a reason. Trump is a grifter.

 

I'm not, and after 2016 you'd have to be an idiot to put your money on Nate Silver's predictions (ask Gorn Captain ).

Another thing people - particularly Republicans - should have learned from 2016 is 'don't count your chickens before they hatch'. Never take victory for granted.

 

Before the Kavanaugh hearings the only thing I thought Dems had going for them was their enthusiasm advantage but they blew that in a big way. All bets are off now.

Worse case scenario, Republicans can live with losing the House. What they can't live with is losing the Senate, and I think they're going to hang on to that chamber if not pick up a few more seats.

 

i will stick with the 2-1 odds.

 

I'm going to call it late Saturday evening on the 10th.

 

It's why the DNC & MSM don't talk about the Senate. Nate Silver says 85% chance (D)'s retake the house. In the same breath Nate says (D)'s Senate prospects ... 17%. Nates 2nd figure ain't getting a lot of coverage. Spending like there's no tomorrow on mid-terms, the DNC literally gains ZERO from a legislative perspective. Get the turnout you need and literally nothing changes? 2020 will be a breeze for Trump.

 

You haven' t gotten the memo that the Koch's switched sides?

 

The "talking heads" aren't grifters hoping to take your money. But go ahead, place your bet.

 

LOL - What happened was that Obama was so pathetic that people were leaving the party in droves and voting in Republicans to keep him from destroying the country. The Republicans didn't take over the government again because Obama was doing so great, most could see through all of his lies and his agenda became crystal clear and nobody wanted anything to do with it.

Obama lost more seats than any other President, that should tell you something right there.

 

Soooo, you do realize that the line can shift based on who put money where? I mean if I put down a million dollars on the blue side on that site, the line would

 

If Trump turns back the caravans, the Republicans will hold the House and increase seats in the Senate.

 

You'd lose all that money.

 

Everyone knows the Caravan seeking Asylum is no threat. They are 900 miles away ............ weeks by foot.

Bush and President Obama both sent troops to the border before ............. Trumps doing nothing special as usual.

 

Did he spot the GOP wave in 2010 or 2016? Those are some significant misses.

Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics has a better track record. He was one of the few who saw the Republican tsunami in 2010 six months out.

Sean T at RCP‏Verified account @SeanTrende 5h5 hours ago
The most puzzling thing for me in this election (and the reason the scenario of Rs barely keeping/just barely losing the House keeps nagging at me) is this: the overall atmosphere isn't that atrocious for Republicans, and a lot of "big picture" signifiers of waves aren't here.

Like, if you compare it to 2006, Trump's job approval is substantially higher than Bush's 37%. The economy is significantly better. Republicans have about the same amount of baseline exposure in the House (i.e., Rs in D-leaning seats).

We haven't seen a massive surge in Democratic party identification. The enthusiasm gap is present, but not really of the magnitude that we've seen in the past. And we typically see a big break at the end.

But while I think this week's polls have been worse for Rs than last week's, we don't seem to have a massive, late shift. We have more than enough seats in play for Ds to take the House, and ultimately I think there's just too many fires for Rs to put them all out.

But we also have a LOT of House seats that are polling within a point or two. If we get even a *slight* break among undecideds toward Republicans they end up keeping a lot of those seats. Of course, the opposite is true as well.

But a *lot* of those seats also have some serious Republican DNA in them so I'd guess an R break is more likely than a D break(?) Anyway, this is what keeps me awake at night. If Rs end up holding, or losing by a seat or two, I think I'll look at this thread and think "what the hell was I thinking?" Don't even get me started on the Senate, where I sort of feel like it will either be R+0 or R+5 without much room in the middle. But I guess that is what makes this fun.

Oh FFS people. Silver's polls-only model gives Rs close to a 1-in-4 chance of holding the House, and his overall model gives Rs roughly the chance of having three kids and having them all boys. Which I promise you happens.

Yet the mainstream Twitter hivemind seems almost unanimous in its assessment that Ds will take the House. If there's any lesson to be learned from 2016, it's that this should make us nervous.

Like, the way to do this stuff is NOT to sit around and look for reasons you could be right. It's to look for reasons that you could be wrong. That's part of the exercise I put myself through constructing scenarios with Ds winning 40 and Ds winning 20.

And it is surprisingly easy to construct either one. My hard count is D+32 right now, and I think that's about right but man. There are plenty of reasons to put it on the high side, which right-thinking Twitter has been dwelling on ad nauseum,

But there are also lots of indicators as to why it might come out on the low side as well. Again, if you learned nothing else from 2016, it should be that we ought to pay attention to those as well.

So Trende learned from 2016 to be cautious. His hesitation about close races in Republican districts is valid because President Trump has solidified Republican support. The media fooled itself into thinking Jeff Flake and the late John McCain somehow represented the majority of Republicans.

But President Trump has delivered: conservative judges, deregulation, a tax cut, moving the embassy to Jerusalem, and fighting back against the media. Doing just three of those five things would make the party regulars happy. He did all five.

How do I know Republicans have Donald Trump's back? Stormy Daniels. CNN and the rest of the Democrat Party tried to launch her as a scandal. She went off like a wet firecracker.

President Trump is a student of Sun Tzu. He wins the war and then goes to battle. He is barnstorming for Republicans across the Trumpiverse like it was his second term.

President Trump's favorability is at 42%, according to Real Clear Politics.

Two years ago, the same site had it at 38%.

Never bet against Donald Trump.

https://donsurber.blogspot.com/2018/11/dont-bet-against-republicans.html#more

 

Don Surber?

Get back to me when the GOP holds the House.