Smart money is on Republicans keeping control of House, betting site odds say

And yet he did something Trump was unable to do.
Win the vote of the people — twice.

 

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/414649-pence-declares-gop-will-retain-control-of-the-house

VP Pence seems to think that the House will stay Republican.

Based on my contacts, the GOP is in a position to secure enough Senate seats in 2018 to hold the Senate until at least 2022 in spite of what happens in 2020.

I doubt that Ginsberg can last four full years.

 

Poor thing's not looking so well, maybe she should be in a full-time care facility.

 

Not a whiskey fan, but bought a decent bottle of Weller last night.

 

I disagree. Folks saw the lurch to the left and voted against it in rural areas all over the map. Hell, even Massachusetts even elected a repub to try and stop it.

 

You think Trump becoming president was a net gain for him? I'm sort of lost on this argument.

 

Very true. I've been following the voter enthusiasm polls. Up and until Kavanaugh the Democrats enthusiasm to get out and vote had a huge advantage. I suppose they were driven by being anti Trump. But after the Kavanaugh circus, the Republicans have tied the Democrats in enthusiasm to get out and vote. Both parties are now riding at or around the 70% level. Unheard of in midterms for sure. Independents on the other hand is at 50%. I highly doubt if 50% of independents turn out to vote.

Even so how those independents vote will probably be the determining factor in approximately 30 tossup races. Independents as a whole are leaning towards the Democratic congressional candidates, but will they show up to vote when most independents aren't avid Trumpers or avid anti Trumpers as the two major party loyalist are? We shall see.

I wonder if the Democrats knew turning the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings into a semi porn circus would energize or wake up the Republicans, if they would have done that. It's also interesting to note that the Kavanaugh circus in senate races along with their nay votes in Montana, Indiana, Missouri have brought those races into a tie where as prior to Kavanaugh, the Democratic incumbent led by an average of 5 points. In North Dakota, Democratic incumbent Heitkampt nay vote sealed her doom and the GOP challenger shot up from a four point lead to double digits.

 

Yes the Leftness will be triggered after discovering they wont be taking the House.

Expect more screaming at the sky. The lefts Witches will cast more spells and the leftness will increase their physical attacks on the Right.

Naturally the Demos collective will increase their disrespect. So be prepared to put them in check. Anytime they open their pie holes.

 

Looks like those Demos got more problem than they think Pero. Moreover Pollsters have admitted.....that online polls are not accurate and Phone polling is down.



Poll: Interest in Midterms Lags For Key Democrat Voting Blocs (Young Voters, Independents, Non-white Voters)
Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 8:00pm

Oddly, however, the Democrats’ key demographics just aren’t that into the Socialist Democrats or Democratic Socialists. They seem to be using the terms interchangeably, as if they meant the same thing. If there were ever two words in any of their forms that don’t go together, “democrat/ic” and “socialist” are top contenders.

Anyway, a recent NBC/WSJ poll shows that voter enthusiasm levels amongst key demographics typically associated with (D) votes is particularly troubling, as is the uptick in GOP voter enthusiasm.



I get voting on principle, but I also get reality. Our reality today is that 2018 midterms are not about party, ideology, or even policy, and they certainly are not about “sending a message” to the GOP or to anyone else (newsflash: they aren’t listening to such messages and never have/never will)…..snip~

https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/...s-young-voters-independents-non-white-voters/


Democrats Are Losing Millennial Support They Need to Win Midterms, New Poll Suggests....

Millennials may not be as loyal to the Democrats as previously thought—and it could hurt the party at the ballot box in November.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday found that support among voters ages 18 to 34 has fallen by roughly 9 percentage points over the last two years. That means just 46 percent of registered millennial voters now identify with the Democrats, as compared to 2016, when the majority of the voting bloc backed the party.

Though an overwhelming two-thirds of the poll's 16,000 respondents said they don't like President Donald Trump, many of these young voters are being pulled to the right by a Republican Party they see as being stronger on economic issues. Some respondents voiced support for the Republican tax legislation and the party's messaging on jobs, which they said have made a material difference in their lives under a GOP-controlled Congress.

Experts said that when it comes to party allegiance, millennials are both more fluid and more easily swayed than the generations that came before them.

"They’re not as wedded to one party," Donald Green, a political science professor at Columbia University, told Reuters. "They’re easier to convince than, say, your 50- or 60-year-olds who don’t really change their minds very often."....snip~

https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-losing-millennial-support-midterms-906014


Oh, and look up Millennials telling the Demos don't expect them to come out to vote for them. That's in California.

What happens to the Demos if Millennials and Independents are a no show for the Demos Pero?

 

When she finally came out of the woods (bottle) she began her blame list that continues today and keeps growing.

 

The main problem for Republicans is the 42 open house seats where the incumbent declined to run for reelection. Open seats are much more easy to win, switch than is beating an incumbent. Also the GOP has more seats to defend. Also out of those 30 tossup seats, 28 are Republican with 10 being open seats.

The GOP has another 8 seats where the Democrat has the lead, just outside the MOE which four are open seats. then another 7 seats where the GOP candidate is in the lead just outside of the MOE with four of these being open.

The numbers are against the Republicans. How much, that depends on whom turns out as you stated. As you know I am more a numbers guy than a partisan or one to let my heart pick the winners when the numbers speak differently. The numbers suggest a net loss for the GOP of 30-35 seats. Again depending on whom turns out to vote. Numbers can tell us many things, give us information to base conclusions on, but what they can't do until the votes are cast is tell us how many voters will turn out and in what portions be then Republican, Democrat, independent, young, old, pro or anti Trump, race or gender etc.

 

Hillyhag running again?

 

Yes, you are a numbers guy and for about a decade you always manage to downplay the Demos troubles.

Yet in that decade. The Demos never lost 40% of the black vote. And even now with that loss of support you still keep touting the Demos.

 

Yay Amy Coney Barrett next!

 

Interesting. I have watched the odd-makers in the past for similar reasons. When there is money involved - there is a whole lot less partisan bias.

 

Democrats are -160 now.

 

The most energized voters are women, especially suburban women. Millennials have become a large voting block, and have become energized in the last month. Turnout by these two groups will be a real problem for the GOP. Republicans, historically, have always had good turnout for mid-term elections. The difference this time is the massive turnout. IMHO, the increase in numbers is most likely due to Democratic and Independent energy. If there is GOP crossover, the Democrats will pick up 60 House seats and put the Senate into play.

 

The right wing violence is having a serious effect.

 

It will get worst...........motivating the brown shirts must be justified!

 

Yes, which is what happened when Obama got a political shellacking in 2010. Good point.

 

And most of the Governorships across this nation. The leftist allied MSM was mysteriously rather reluctant to inform the nation of that fact back in 2010 for some odd reason.

 

The problem Nate has is that he gets most or all of his income from leftist sources and so if he fails to --er -- massage his statistics in the desired direction he threatens his financial bottom line. Soooooo . . . he generally plays the political game by giving the Left an over the top prediction of success until just before the election day itself when -- mysteriously -- his prediction suddenly aligns more with common sense and political sanity. At least that has been the pattern since 2014.

 

Yep, because if they don't also retake the Senate then they've got nothing except a glorious opportunity to prove to the entire nation until 2020 that they collectively HATE this nation.

 

First the leftist allied MSM was blatantly campaigning for Barack Obama in 2014 and especial so in what were essentially rigged in Obama's favor debates. Second, Trump won in 2016 with that same MSM telling the people how EVIL he was. Third, 2020 has not yet rolled around.

 

I dont know what the chances are for republicans,

but if dems win the house it will just be an even bigger food fight for the next two years with little getting done