Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-013, posted 2020-08-014, 10:19 GMT +2, #11920.
Israel update, posted 2020-08-014, 23:01 GMT +2, #11922.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-014, posted 2020-08-015, 09:08 GMT +2, #11925.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Friday, 2020-08-014 (EOD = GMT +0):
THIS THREAD IS NOW EXACTLY FIVE MONTHS OLD

*****5,476,266*****
+60,600 new COVID-19 cases, a slight case-decrease over the Friday before.
There are now 171,535 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,120 of them were recorded on this day.
USA weekly average = 54,392 new infections & 1,063 deaths per day.
Currently, 17,217 C19 cases in the USA are listed as critical care.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The most accurate way of describing what is going on with the daily averages is simply to say that the averages for the USA are currently in-flux. I would not put too much stock in one or the other daily variation, but rather, keep my eyes on the weekly average. In this case, the weekly average shift from the Sunday before to to this last one shows a verifiable reduction in both categories. However, in the daily death averages, it looks as if this week's average, when it is calculated after Sunday, will be on the rise.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were 2 unit/rubrik changes on this day, in: SD and MI.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

Exactly 5 months ago, on 2020-03-014, I started this thread and so I thought it would be good to once again look at the WorldOMeter listing for that day (not nearly as extensive as what I do these days and at that time, neither I nor WorldOMeter was tracking the USA by state):



For perspective, on that day, China, with less than 81,000 total cases, was rank 1, the USA, with less than 2,500 cases, was rank 8 and the cruise ship DIAMOND PRINCESS, with 696 cases, was rank 26. As of 2020-08-014, with almost 5.5 million cases, the USA is rank 1, and while a little over 84,000 cases, China is now rank 32 and the cruise ship DIAMOND PRINCESS is now rank: 160. In March, Brazil, India, Russia, Mexico, Colombia, Peru and South Africa were on literally noone's radar....

So, we have gone from 2,499 cases and 57 deaths in the USA on 2020-03-014 to 5,476,266 cases and 171,535 deaths exactly five months later. That's a 2,191-FOLD jump in cases and a 3,009-FOLD jump in deaths in five months time.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. For the fourth time, Indiana is on the +1,000-list.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

For more than 3 months now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths. On 2020-08-006, California joined that miserable statistic and looking at the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida, etc, I can't promise that California will be the last state to cross over the 10,000 death line. Both Texas and Florida are nearing the 10,000-line very quickly.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 171,535 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of all of PEORIA, never to get it back again. Think about that.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that currently, we are +2,888 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us somewhat less than 3.5 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+1,397), to note.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

2:8

groeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoehl

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-014, posted 2020-08-015, 09:08 GMT +2, #11925.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-014, posted 2020-08-015, 09:32 GMT +2, #11926.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Saturday, 2020-08-015 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
MAJOR WARNING SIGNS OF A SECOND, MUCH LARGER WAVE HITTING ARUBA, WITH CONSEQUENCES FOR THE WORLD

֍֍* 21,605,614 *֍֍
+260,343 new C19 cases over the day before, slightly less cases than the Saturday before.
30 nations reported +1,000 (or considerably more) new C19 cases on this day.
153 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 768,226 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,562 of them were on this day.
India's death-toll has increased 5-fold from 10,000 to 50,000 in just 2 months, (2020-06-015 - 2020-08-015).
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +258,650 new C19 cases per day and +5,633 deaths per day.
1,071 US-American, 950 Indian, 726 Brazilian, 615 Mexican & 318 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 64,437
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012.

The number of daily deaths (5,562) for the day currently being analysed was LESS than the 4 Saturdays before.

ARUBA​

I know that the sub-headline above seems ominous, but I want to strongly encourage all of you to read up on the small Island (vassal state of the Netherlands) of ARUBA.
Here the WIKI over the very rich island get-away, and here the COVID-19 WIKI for the same. Here's the thing: for months on end, Aruba hung under 100 cases and then proclaimed they were all recovered (other than the 4 who have died from the virus). Then, starting 11 days ago, Aruba experienced a major jump in cases and has now grown 8.25-fold in those 11 days, putting Aruba on the Covid-19 radar as a land with now 1,000 confirmed C19-cases. The Island has a population of just less than 107,000. Here the development over the 6 weeks:




You can see the meteoric rise in cases for yourself.

Aruba is officially declaring this to be a second wave, right now. My point is, if this can happen in Aruba, which is a somewhat secretive get-away for the rich and famous, with extremely high security precautions, then imagine what is happening in less fortunate smaller lands in the world that don't have the money to test so much. Food for thought, nöööö.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There were 3 nation-rubrik-jumps on this day: Aruba, Ecuador and Nepal.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +350 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

It's looks very much as if the new-caseload in South Africa is receding, while the new-caseloads in Colombia and Peru continue to increase. A record-breaking 32 nations had +1,000 or considerably more new C19 cases on this day.​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

Currently at 172,606 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.47% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before it was 22.49%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.5%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, now with 107,297 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 13.97% of all of the C19 deaths in the world (the day before, it was also 13.97%). Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.44% of all worldwide C19 deaths.

Both India and Mexico are marching toward the 100,000-total-death line rather quickly. Mexico is currently ahead of India, but India, which just crossed over the 50,000-death line on 2020-08-015, is accruing more deaths per day on the average than Mexico, so, soon India will surpass Mexico. I suspect that both will reach 100,000 total deaths within days of each other.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

Average daily deaths for India (current): 947 per day (the day before: 937)
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 965 per day (the day before: 981)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,077 per day (the day before: 1,063)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

44 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 44, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. Currently at 8.6 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far.
The USA has performed 70.2 million tests (800,000 more than the day before).
Russia has performed 32.2 million tests (300,000 more than the day before).
India has completed 28.6 million such tests (900,000 more than the day before).
The UK has performed 14.3 million such tests (200,000 more than the day before).
Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, is literally stuck at 13.5 million such tests (-0- more than the day before).

FACIT: on 2020-08-015, the world travelled from 21.35 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 21.4, 21.5 and 21.6 million to land at 21.605 million. At this trajectory, the world will go over 22 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Monday, 2020-08-017.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-014, posted 2020-08-015, 09:32 GMT +2, #11926.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-015, posted 2020-08-016, 10:00 GMT +2, #11928.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Saturday, 2020-08-015 (EOD = GMT +0):

*****5,529,789*****
+53,523 new COVID-19 cases, a slight case-decrease over the Saturday before.
There are now 172,606 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,071 of them were recorded on this day.
With 9,896 deaths, Texas is only 104 away from 10,000 total C19 deaths and will very soon cross that line.
USA weekly average = 54,295 new infections & 1,077 deaths per day.
Currently, 17,186 C19 cases in the USA are listed as critical care.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

9 days before, the USA went over the 5 million mark in COVID-19 cases. As of 2020-08-015, it is at 5.5 million. The ever onward march to the next million mark is slowing down somewhat, but it sure is not stopping.

The most accurate way of describing what is going on with the daily averages is simply to say that the averages for the USA are currently in-flux. I would not put too much stock in one or the other daily variation, but rather, keep my eyes on the weekly average. In this case, the weekly average shift from the Sunday before to to this last one shows a verifiable reduction in both categories. However, in the daily death averages, it looks as if this week's average, when it is calculated after Sunday, will be on the rise.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

There were more daily deaths on this day (1,071) than on 3 of the 4 Saturdays before.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were no unit/rubrik changes on this day.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

It should be noted that not long from now, but the US Military and the Dept. of Veterans Affairs will go over 50,000 total C19 cases a piece. Also, the Navajo Nation is moving quickly toward 5-digit status, 10,000 total C19 cases, as well. And the only Unit in the USA with under 1,000 total C19 cases, the Western Territories (Guam, Northern Marianas Islands), now have a total of 552 C19 cases.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. For the fifth time, Indiana is on the +1,000-list. In fact, the entire upper industrial Midwest is on the +1,000 list this time around: Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Illinois.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

For more than 3 months now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths. On 2020-08-006, California joined that miserable statistic and looking at the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida, etc, I can't promise that California will be the last state to cross over the 10,000 death line. Both Texas and Florida are nearing the 10,000-line very quickly. In fact, as of 2020-018-015, Texas is only 104 away from the 10,000-line and will likely cross that line today, 2020-08-016 and if not, then 2020-08-017 at the very latest.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 172,606 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of SIOUX FALLS or most all of VANCOUVER, never to get the one of the the other back again. Think about that.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that currently, we are +3,109 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us 3.7 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+1,523), to note.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Latest news out of South Africa is that they appear to have passed their peak and have decided to lower their Pandemic Level from 3 to 2 this coming week.



Greece has been mentioned as an example of a nation that locked down and successfully fended off the worst of the virus. They reopened their country to tourism and this trend is appearing.



Both nations rely on tourism to support their economies.

 

Holy cow, the Greece situation is terrible. They get the thing under control... reopen for tourism... and get it much worse than before? Poor Greeks. Hawaii also relies on tourism but they are taking the hit and making tourists quarantine for 2 weeks, throwing in jail the ones who don't, which is decimating their tourism but is keeping their numbers low. 4,825 cases, 40 deaths. I think the Hawaiians are right, as opposed to the Greeks. There is no bigger blow to an economy than an out-of-control outbreak. And like the president of Argentina said when he was criticized for keeping a lockdown that was hurting the economy, "you can recover from an economic downturn but you can't recover from death."

 

Speaking of Argentina they are not doing that great either. They are on the up slope of a surge and it is entirely because of political pressure to reopen their economy too soon.

I get that there does need to be economic activity but there also needs to be stringent enforcement of mask wearing and social distancing. If that can be maintained then doing contact tracing and quarantining it is possible to manage the spread. However that takes both discipline and cooperation from all parties.

In the case of Greece and tourism there is alcohol and crowded places and that means they are going to struggle to avoid another lockdown.

 

Spain, same problem, tourism.

 

The union is on your side in this one. They'll be pressing the school district to protect the health of their students.

 

Wow! My sister who lives in British Columbia/near Vancouver, just texted me the following;

In anticipation of a serious Fall Covid19 surge, BC’s government are hiring an extra 500 contact tracers, for a total of 1,230 contact tracers, and their current Covid19 numbers, new daily cases, less than 120, total confirmed 4,358, recovered, 3,533, deaths, 196

Folks, BC’s 1,230 contact tracers equates to 246 CT’s per 1M pop, thus, per 1M pop U.S., 81,420 contact tracers, and according to NPR.org, a survey of contact tracers conducted end of July, 45 States reported a total of 41,122 contact tracers.

Last, what makes me jittery is BC’s health officials/their CDC have been right, and proactive all along.

 

You know it! Teachers are opting out, staying home to teach and the trend is growing

 

Some courses can be taught entirely at home in small online groups (math, history, English), some need some lab time (sciences, trades), and so on.

I would have skilled staff look at every course and determine what part of the subject needs a congregate setting. The admin looks at the physical plant they have and consider how the school can accommodate the need for students to physically attend. Some subjects may not be viable given their need for school resources, or the likelihood of spreading the virus.

Caveat. I taught a lot of computer science for more than a decade. I dropped the computer science and filled out my timetable with history and business subjects.

I put my accounting courses online. I very seldom did anything other than help them individually in class. The course was taught in a computer lab.

I put my history courses online, too. Students were directed to primary and secondary sources online. The idea was to get them to think.

A lot of kids did my courses on their own. Accounting was a huge target. I taught them a first-year university introductory accounting course.

Egads. They sent regular teachers to your house? $$$$

The schools aren't wisely using their limited classroom resources, IMO. Some, instead of working on the problem, have more or less closed their eyes and had everyone attend. It can't and won't work well if there's a lot of COVID-19 around.



A lot of people are coming to the realization schools can't operate unless we get the new case load wayyyy down.

 

Of course. Teachers may not go back without access to really effective PPE.

 

The teachers / school kids safety issue is very strange. There are very contradictory papers out there, and conflicting information. Look at this one, for example:

https://adc.bmj.com/content/105/7/618.long

This op ed and articles that are in its reference list make it all sound very safe with kids being lousy spreaders and typically not contaminating teachers. Some examples in the above article are reassuring, with a case of a positive child who had contact with 100 people and managed to infect no one. Even the risk of children bringing the infection home and passing it on to parents and grandparents seemed exaggerated as children are rarely the index case (the first one infected, bringing it from outside, and passing it on to other family members) in households, contrary to common sense (it's easy to suppose that this is the case and there are memes and all ridiculing the situation... but all this risk of family spread is simply NOT happening... this virus is weird.

Some countries reopened without a spike in community transmission. In the past I posted here graphs for four of these countries showing absolutely no bump after they reopened their schools.

It is suggested that kids have low levels of ACE2 enzymes which are needed by the virus to infect human cells.

Oh well, until it looked like that 0-5y.o. kids actually have bigger viral loads and are bigger transmitters than adults. Another study put kids up to age 10 under suspicion. Still another established that any advantage in low ACE2 levels are lost after the age of 12.

And then, middle schools and high schools in Israel had bad outbreaks. Some early openings in the US resulted in some outbreaks too. Here, the Israeli HS case:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32720636/

This paper talks about scenarios and precautions, and it is interesting:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7321012/

Anyway, it's confusing. At one point I was pretty adamant that the risk was small and teachers unions should shape up and do their share for the sake of society (we healthcare workers have been doing our share steadily and daily since the very beginning and we're not going on strike or complaining too much; we've been bravely soldiering on).

Now, I don't know.

On one hand, the risk for the kids themselves seems infinitesimal. They very very very rarely die of COVID-19, very rarely get any consequence from it, and even when they get MIS-C from it and need ICU care, 98% of those cases survive (I've posted a link to this study before; I don't want to post too many studies in one post and become even more confusing). The odds are smaller than the odds of TB, meningitis, and even the seasonal flu and school bus accidents, so, it seems illogical to close schools for the sake of COVID-19 in widespread areas and for a long time, when we don't do the same for those bigger risks except in a limited manner.

Also, not allowing kids to attend school in person also has profound risks to their development (cognitive, linguistic, social, psychological, and even general health as in certain communities kids eat better and get more healthcare from the school environment than from home). So it's not like not reopening the schools is harmless. Working parents need schools too to take care of their kids while they work, and the economy needs these workers.

On the other hand, the reassuring data from science, above, seem to have been actually variable with some outbreaks going more strongly than expected. And lately there's been a slight uptick in reports of bad outcomes among a few kids. Of course, losing even ONE kid is very traumatic and very tragic.

I guess my position in this remains the same as after the British Medical Journal above reassured me, that is, that schools must reopen, as the benefits may outweigh the risks, but to this, I'd add some VERY good precautions, such as:

1) Temperature and symptom check at the door before kids are allowed to come in, like many work sites do, although it's trickier for kids, who often don't have a fever even if they do have COVID-19 and most are asymptomatic. Still, we might catch a few cases before they contaminate others, especially among older kids (teenagers).

2) Mandatory masks to be worn at all times in school premises, for kids. Tricky too for younger ages. Do it as possible for the young ones (make them fun, cute, etc.).

3) Open windows. Fans. UV lights.

4) Social distancing - getting desks farther apart if possible. Teachers not to approach kids (again, trickier for young kids). Corridors and halls to be fairly empty at any given time by staggering classes.

5) Segregation of kids in pods/clusters. So, a kid would only closely interact with peers who belong to the same pod/cluster so that if there is contagion, it is contained.

6) Testing, testing, testing. Contact tracing of positive cases.

7) Teachers to be given high quality PPE. At the very minimum, medical grade facemasks (ASTM level 3) enhanced by rubber bands to promote tighter seal, and goggles. Wanna place a face shield on top of it all? Do it. Wanna be obsessive about it and include gowns and gloves? I'm less of a fan (especially gloves which easily backfire), but do it, if it will reassure teachers. Hand sanitizers. Clorox wipes. Teachers to be especially wary of their own adult colleagues and adult staff as they will likely be at more risk from those than from kids.

Supplement in-school presence with online classes as possible, so that maybe these can alternate, effectively reducing the school population at any given time by two fold, so that desks can be farther apart, corridors are not crowded, etc. - I do realize that this doesn't really help parents, so I'm ambivalent about this one.

9) Hold some classes outdoors, weather permitting, in large open tents. This can also lower the number of kids simultaneously present inside the building.

10) No recess. No horseplay in corridors. No gathering around lockers (stagger lockers all over the school, using every niche so that kids don't all flock to the one existing locker area). No large groups sitting together in cafeterias unless they are members of the same pod/cluster.

11) No gym or PE except if it can be done with extreme social distancing or held outdoors. No choir, no school band (or at least no winds and brass instruments). No school sports. The point here is to avoid forceful breathing/singing/playing instruments by blowing etc which can increase viral shedding.

That's what I can think of at the moment. There's probably more that can be done.

 

I doubt that the teachers were paid any extra for coming around to my house during off periods or after school hours and it was usually only one or two per day for about 30 minutes each that I was aware of. We lived about 2 miles from the school so it was probably on their way home.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-015, posted 2020-08-016, 10:00 GMT +2, #11928.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-015, posted 2020-08-016, 10:30 GMT +2, #11929.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Sunday, 2020-08-016 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
THE WORLD WILL GO OVER 22,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES ON MONDAY, 2020-08-017

֍֍* 21,818,117 *֍֍
+212,503 new C19 cases over the day before, slightly less cases than the Sunday before.
5 nations reported +10,000 (or far more) new C19 cases on this day.
153 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 83 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 772,759 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,533 of them were on this day.
Worldwide weekly averages: +257,367 new C19 cases per day and +5,593 deaths per day.
961 Indian, 635 Mexican, 582 Brazilian, 522 US-American & 287 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 64,485 (+48 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012.

The number of daily deaths (4,533) for the day currently being analysed was less than the Sunday before, but more than the 3 Sundays before that.

The weekly average from Sunday 2020-08-009 to Sunday 2020-08-016 rose in +cases and sunk in +deaths.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There were 2 nation-rubrik-jumps on this day: Norway and Lebanon.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +350 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

It's looks very much as if the new-caseload in South Africa is receding, while the new-caseloads in Colombia and Peru continue to increase. Peru broke the +10,000 new-case mark on 2020-08-016, I believe, for the first time.​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

Currently at 173,128 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.40% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before it was 22.47%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.4%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, now with 107,879 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 13.96% of all of the C19 deaths in the world (the day before, it was 13.97%). Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.36% of all worldwide C19 deaths.

Both India and Mexico are marching toward the 100,000-total-death line rather quickly. Mexico is currently ahead of India, but India, which just crossed over the 50,000-death line on 2020-08-015, is accruing more deaths per day on the average than Mexico, so, soon India will surpass Mexico. I suspect that both will reach 100,000 total deaths within days of each other.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

Average daily deaths for India (current): 940 per day (the day before: 947)
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 963 per day (the day before: 965)
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,073 per day (the day before: 1,077)

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

44 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 44, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. Currently at 8.6 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and he exact numberic change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the excel tables themselves. I will be making an extra posting about this during the run of the day on 2020-08-017. So, the text below will be presented today for the very last time today:

"With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far.
The USA has performed 71.0 million tests (800,000 more than the day before).
Russia has performed 32.5 million tests (300,000 more than the day before).
India has completed 29.3 million such tests (700,000 more than the day before).
The UK has performed 14.5 million such tests (200,000 more than the day before).
Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, is literally stuck at 13.5 million such tests (-0- more than the day before)."

As of tomorrow, if you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.

FACIT: on 2020-08-016, the world travelled from 21.605 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 21.7 and 21.8 million to land at 21.82 million. At this trajectory, the world will go over 22 million confirmed COVID-19 cases today, Monday, 2020-08-017.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-015, posted 2020-08-016, 10:30 GMT +2, #11929.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-016, posted 2020-08-017, 11:05 GMT +2, #11941.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Sunday, 2020-08-016 (EOD = GMT +0):

*****5,566,632*****
+36,843 new COVID-19 cases, lowest daily case load since 2020-06-023.
There are now 173,128 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 522 of them were recorded on this day.
Texas crossed over 10,000 total C19 death-line on 2020-08-016, is now the 4th state to do so.
Florida, currently at 9,458, is now only 542 away from the 10,000 total C19 death-mark.
USA weekly average = 52,455 new infections & 1,073 deaths per day.
17,237 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (+51 over the day before).
NEW: data for TOTAL PERFORMED C19 cases has been added to the EXCEL-TABLE.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

10 days before, the USA went over the 5 million mark in COVID-19 cases. As of 2020-08-015, it is at 5.57 million. The ever onward march to the next million mark is slowing down somewhat, but it sure is not stopping.

The most accurate way of describing what is going on with the daily averages is simply to say that the averages for the USA are currently in-flux. I would not put too much stock in one or the other daily variation, but rather, keep my eyes on the weekly average. In this case, the weekly average shift from the Sunday before to to this last one shows a verifiable reduction in both categories. However, in the daily death averages, this week's average over the average from the week before shows a definite DECREASE in daily +cases and a definite INCREASE in daily +deaths.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

There were more daily deaths on this day (522) ranks this Sunday as no. 2 out of the last 5.

COVID-19 in the USA, total performed C19 TESTS, see: NEW COLUMNS P, Q and R:​

You may notice that the excel table has changed. I have deleted the columns for the growth rates for recovered and still ill cases, because I found the statistic to be essentially worthless. In it's place, and for the USA, already input all the way back to the first day that WorldOMeters started publishing this information, the total number of administered C19 cases, the change value over the day before AND the rolling 7-day average. So, on 2020-08-016, the USA updated its total adminstered tests to 70.96 million (almost 71 million), which reflected an increase of almost +736,000 over the day before. We could say, on 2020-08-016, the USA released the results of 736,000 more completed C19 tests. Now, which type of tests these were (PCR, Saliva, Quicktest, anti-body test), we do not know. And the number of completed tests is not necessarily the same as the number of PEOPLE whose tests were completed. The last column, R, shows the rolling 7 day average, which I do think would be helpful to compare at least from end-of-week to end-of week. For instance on Sunday, 2020-08-016, the 7 day rolling average of 789,626 tests per day is more than the Sunday before (785,392), but decidedly smaller than 2 Sundays ago (816,561). @nopartisanbull - I believe that this is a statistic that has interested you in the past. In the future, I am simply going to note the total C19 tests only at the end of each week, with the Sunday analysis.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were 2 unit/rubrik changes on this day: MD and TX.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

It should be noted that not long from now, the US Military and the Dept. of Veterans Affairs will go over 50,000 total C19 cases a piece. Also, the Navajo Nation is moving quickly toward 5-digit status, 10,000 total C19 cases, as well. And the only Unit in the USA with under 1,000 total C19 cases, the Western Territories (Guam, Northern Marianas Islands), now have a total of 552 C19 cases.
​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. This is the leanest +1,000 list we have seen in a good, long time. I consider that to be good news.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

It's rare that 2 states tie for anything, but on this day, both Florida and Texas recorded +107 deaths a piece.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

Almost 4 months ago now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths. On 2020-08-006, California joined that miserable statistic and looking at the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida, etc, I can't promise that California will be the last state to cross over the 10,000 death line. Texas crossed the 10,000 death-line on 2020-08-016 and Florida are nearing the 10,000-line very quickly. I suspect that by Friday of this coming week, at the latest, Florida will also go over this gruesome marker.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 173,128 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of VANCOUVER or most all (99.96%) of EAST NEW YORK, never to get the one of the the other back again. Think about that.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that we are currently +2,781 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 3.3 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+1,220), to note. I think you may begin to note that highlighting Sundays in yellow can be very helpful for the eyes, which can easily identify the content within a yellow field regardless of most lighting conditions.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

With the caveat that we really don't know how well Greece has been publishing it's C19 numbers.
What is important is that, because of its extremely warm and very dry (most of the time) climate, Greece was held up for a number of months as a ray of hope that C19 dies when the weather gets warm. Well, we can clearly see that that's not the case.

However, there are, in addition to the mainland in Hellas (Greece) more than 2,000 small islands, some of them very sparsely inhabited. Also, the poorest tend to not live in slums as in the case is many industrialized nations, but rather, out in the country. I've sweated my way through Greece more than once.

So, let's see what happens there the next weeks.

One country that is being exceptionally quiet (read that as: suppressing the C19 numbers) is: Turkey.

 

Bravo to all of this input. Every bit of it.

The worst problem is, of course, lack of knowledge and experience as to how seriously ill young students can become. The sage "conventional wisdoms" of March 2020 (seems like forever ago, nöööö) have pretty much flown out the window:

Back then / now:

"Children don't catch C19" / ähm, yes, they do
"When children do catch C19, it's not really serious" / ähm, yes, it certainly is.
"Children likely do not spread C19" / HUUUUGE lie, of course kids can spread it, just like adults.
"Children won't die from C19" / also a HUUUUUGE lie, kids have already died from it.

What makes the conundrum worse is that we literally have no clue how many kids out there are asymptomatic. I mean, when a Summer Camp that tried it's hardest to avoid getting C19 ended up with 260 cases and had to shut down, considering the shitty lag-time between tests and results, how many of those young people first went home and infected others, who in turn infected others, who in turn....???

As for learning, being a former HS/MS teacher myelf, yes, some forms of learning can be remote and actually, a smash hit.
But other forms of learning really do require in person attendance. Science Labs, Geology, Social Sciences, Music, Art, Sports, just to name some.

Later this week I'll pop out a report about how German schools are faring, since this is now the 2nd week of fulltime school for my daughter, who is now in 8th grade.

 

Gotta get to work but before I start my business-day, here a rare numerical palindrome for you, it doesn't happen very often:

 

1 - yes they do
2 - No, the overwhelming majority of case in children are not serious
3 - No, they don't spread it "just like adults" - there are differences - did you see the post where I mentioned links to scientific papers saying otherwise?
4 - Yes, some die but it's infinitesimal, like 0.02% of all infected.

Your answers, especially #3, seem to be the common sense ones but are contradicted by science. This virus is strange and for some reason it hits children differently (one hypothesis is due to lower levels of ACE2 in the respiratory tract among children).

 

Actually, the huge influx of cases among children in just the last 18 days means that you cannot justify either 2, 3 or 4, because not enough time has passed to see how their cases are progressing. Therefore, science clearly says that there is not enough empirical evidence to justify a good amount of what you wrote.

Also, currently, 86.5 million Americans are between the ages of 0-21. 86,500,000 * 0,002 would be 173,000 dead kids, were the entire youth population to be infected.

So, a term link "infinitesimal" doesn't play here.

This virus is NOT harmless to children. Anyone who is trying to say though any statistic-spread that this virus is harmless to kids is spreading propaganda, nothing less and nothing more.

 

This article is worth reading and goes back to my content all the way back near the beginning of the OP:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dont-just-look-at-covid-19-fatality-rates-look-at-people-who-survive--but-dont-entirely-recover/2020/08/14/3b3de170-de6a-11ea-8051-d5f887d73381_story.html

 

Yes let's not use propaganda like if all kids got it we would have a 173k dead children. The fact are that in kids the seriousness and death rate of Covid is very very small. Kids are much more likely to die from anything other than Corona. Let's use facts instead of propaganda. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

 

Trump; “If my administration didn’t take action against the Coronavirus, 2.2 million Americans could have died”

Since end March, Trump reiterated the above-mentioned Death Model at least 10 times.

Propaganda??????

173K/2.2 million = less than 10%