Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

That you survived TWICE says a great deal about your strength of character.

This is not a disease that anyone should have to die from so we need that vaccine ASAP.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-024, posted 2020-09-025, 09:27 GMT +2, #12434.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-024, posted 2020-09-025, 09:59 GMT +2, #12435.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Friday, 2020-09-025 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
֍֍֍** 32,753,099 **֍֍֍

+351,376 new C19 cases over the day before, more than the Friday before, highest +case-day to-date.
TOTAL C19 cases: 165 nations with 1,000+, 97 with 10,000+, 59 with 50,000+, 38 with 100,000+, 4 with 1,000,000+.

There have now been 992,978 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,822 of them were on this day.
Indonesia went over 10,000 total COVID-19 deaths on this day.
INDIA has reported more than +1,000 new deaths per day for 25 days in a row and for 29 of the last 32 days total.
---------------------------------------------------------
We are now only -7,022 away from 1,000,000 (ONE MILLION) total COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
INDIA is now only -6,590 away from 100,000 total COVID-19 deaths in that nation.
---------------------------------------------------------
Worldwide 7-day-rolling averages: a record-shattering +295,386 new C19 cases per day / +5,321 deaths per day
+1,093 Indian, +902 US-American, +826 Brazilian, +490 Mexican & +442 Argentinian new deaths were recorded on this day.

The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 63,773 (+1,387 over the day before)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The world has once again had at least 3 peak days this week with over +300,000 per day (2020-09-023, 024 & 025), but it could end up being 4 days when all is said and done. Wait and see. One important factor to note here is that the USA is NOT the main driver of a new worldwide surge in cases, as it was 3 and 2 months ago.

With +351,376 new C19 cases across the world, this Friday now holds the record for the most viral load in one day. It is also now the 4th Friday in a row where the world went over the +300,000 mark and also the 4th Friday in a row to verifiably be the peak day of the week. It is highly doubtful that today, 2020-09-026, will bring as many +cases as Friday did, but with a general lifting of +cases by at least 10,000 per day over the corresponding day the week before, it is very possible that the world will just go over +300,000 today. Wait and see. Also, with less than 250,000 new cases needed today, 2020-09-026, in order to crack over the 33 million mark, the world will most definitely achieve this today.

The number of worldwide daily deaths (5,822) for the day being analysed was more than the corresponding day one week before (5,450).

An extrapolation that I have running at the USA analyses projects that the USA will hit 250,000 deaths by 2020-11-018 (we are currently circa 5 days ahead of the projections) and 300,000 deaths by early January, 2021.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 2 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: the Maldives & Indonesia.

The way the rubrik table is presented, you can easily (and mathematically) see how the week has developed until its end.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +50 C19 cases and above):
​

India, which passed Brazil in total cases closing in on 3 weeks ago, is now +1,208,992 (the day before: +1,156,149) cases ahead of Brazil and -1,342,613 (the day before: -1,369,368 ) cases behind the USA. In the coming days, that relationship will be reversed and India will end up less behind the USA and more ahead of Brazil. It is now only a matter of time before India takes rank 1 among the nations in terms of total cases; this will likely happen in October, 2020.

Also, both Peru and Colombia are both on the cusp 800,000 total C19 cases, well ahead of Mexico and it is quite possible that both of them will hit 1,000,0000 cases in the same week, probably by middle of October, 2020.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

Lebanon is on the +1,000 list - I believe, for the very first time.

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 208,440 / 20.99% of worldwide deaths (21.02% the day before). The USA is currently expected to hit 250,000 deaths Mid-November, 2020.

Brazil, total deaths: 140,709 / 14.17% of worldwide deaths (also 14.17% the two days before). Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 711 per day, from 2020-09-013 = +96 days from now: 2020-12-020.

India, total deaths: 93,410 / 9.41% of worldwide deaths (9.35% the day before), -6,590 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,167 per day, from 2020-09-015 = +15.3 days: 2020-10-001. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 75,439 / 7.60% of worldwide deaths (7.59% the day before). No extrapolation for 100,000 deaths quite yet.

Combined (517,998), the top four nations currently represent 52.17% of all total deaths in the world to-date (was also 52.14% the day before).

It should be noted that Indonesia's population (274.2 million people, 4th largest in the world) is not that much less than the USA (331.4 million people, 3rd largest in the world) and yet, the USA has more than 27 times as many total cases and more than 20 times as many total deaths as Indonesia. That is fact, pure and simple.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

5 of the top 11 nations are from the Americas.

India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005 and has maintained it until current.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

58 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Norway having crossed over the 1,000,000-test line on 2020-09-025; of those 58, 10 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil, Germany, Spain, Italy and France. Currently at 9.8 million tests performed, Turkey is poised to cross over the 10-million line in the next days.


END-FACIT: on 2020-09-025, the world travelled from 32.401 million total C19 cases over the day before, hopscotching over 32.5, 32.6 and 32.7 million to land at 32.75 million. The world will go over 33 million confirmed COVID-19 cases today, 2020-09-026.

-Stat

 

So many of these countries have limited record keeping.
Who knows how many cases, deaths and recoveries there are.
As has been said, we may only know the true extent of the pandemic much later on.

 

In UK university term started a few days ago. Many are now asking their students to go into quarantine because of massive outbreaks of the virus in the first week. In one case around 20% of one large group of students tested positive - if memory is right around 130 out of 600 at a freshers party tested positive straight away and no doubt more of them are also positive because they all live in the same hall!

And here are students queuing in another city during freshers week:

Perhaps every student should be infected just to get it out of the way

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-024, posted 2020-09-025, 09:59 GMT +2, #12435.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-025, posted 2020-09-026, 11:24 GMT +2, #12452.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for for Friday, 2020-09-025 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
-THE MIDWEST IS DRIVING THE NEWEST SURGE JUST AS MUCH AS THE SOUTH AND CALIFORNIA-
******* 7,244,184 *******

+58,713 new COVID-19 cases over the day before, more than the Friday before, highest +-case day since 2020-08-014.
California in the 800,000-zone, Texas in the 700,000-zone, Florida in the 600,000-zone, probably for one more day.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
US-Military is approaching 65,000 total C19 cases.
US-Veterans Affairs is approaching 60,000 total C19 cases.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There are now 208,440 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, +902 of those deaths were recorded on this day
USA 7-day-rolling average = 45,616 new infections & 753 deaths per day.
14,141 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-15 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 102.5 million

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The number of daily deaths on this day (902) was less than the corresponding day in the week before (954).

It should be noted that a pretty major surge in +cases is hitting the world right now. Last week, our world had 3 days in a row of +300,000 cases per day; this week, it may even happen 4 times in a row. Wait and see. But important to note is that, unlike the phenomenon from June/July into August of 2020, this time, the USA is not the main driver of the world-wide surge. India is, and a large number of smaller nations all combined are showing daily plus totals that would have made your skin crawl just 4 months ago. However, as Dr. Anthony Fauci just said in the last 48 hours, live, on TV, and average of +40,000 per day is still way too much as we enter into the regular flu-season as well, increasing the danger of a so-called "twin-demic".

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 0 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day.

This is the third day in a row with no unit/rubrik changes, but with an average of over +45,000 cases per day, counts are creeping up pretty much everywhere in the USA.

The way the rubrik table is presented, you can easily (and mathematically) see how the week has developed until its end.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

As I noted in the big headline above, at current, CA is in the 800,000-zone, TX is in the 700,000-zone and FL is at the very upper end of the 600,000-zone. Probably by the end of this coming weekend, FL will be in the 700,000 zone, at the beginning of next month, TX will join CA in the 800,000 zone and by election day there is still the very strong possibility that CA will be at or approaching 1,000,000 total C19 cases. I am pretty sure that this is a scenario that no one was even considering possible just 3 months ago.

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

8 of the 20 Units (Puerto Rico also had over +1,000 fresh C19 infections) on the 1,000-list are from the Deep South: TX, FL, AL, TN, NC, GA, OK and SC.
However 8 states from the Midwest are also on the 1,000-list: WI, KS, IL, MN, IN, IA, OH and MI.
And 1 state is considered a border state between the two, but is usually listed as within the Midwest: MO
The remaining 2 states on the 1,000-list are from the West: CA and UT.

So, right now, the Midwest is powering the newest "surge" every bit as much as the South.

When you move that list outward to the 500-list (33 states), that then fleshes out the rest of the South, the Midwest and the West, but of the top 33 states, only 2 are from the NE: NY and MD.
Here too is a border state between the NE and the MW: PA (called an "acela state").

The outlier, for a second day in a row, where it is hot and dry and there is lots and lots of space for people is: Utah. To put this into perspective, Utah's total positive cases per population (21,376) is nominally HIGHER than California's (20,353) and is also considerably higher than Ohio's (12,749). The point is: this beast is really, really, REALLY infectious.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the 48 hour period analysed with 208,440 total US deaths from COVID-19.



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than the population of MARYVILLE or just slightly less than the population of ROCHESTER, never to get the one or the other back again.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013). 200,000 deaths were reached 5 days before, on 2020-09-015.
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that we are currently at +4,093 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 4.8 days ahead of the next milestone-projections. This value is lower than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,770), to note. As you can see, 8 days before, the USA hit the 200,000 death mark five days ahead of the milestone-projections.

I know it may be tiring to see these statistics all the time, but I do think it's important to follow the data-path every day and to put it in print, for posterity's sake, so that the naysayers cannot say "nay" without looking totally ignorant.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Indeed. That being said, I can't make statistics out of made-up numbers, I have to work with what is real and verified in that moment.

 

That you beat back death not just once, but twice, speaks volumes about YOUR fortitude. Hut ab! (I tip my hat to you)

Also, Mr. Death is a wimp, of course.

Grööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhlllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

 

People have no idea how much we actually love to live and how hard we fight to keep a live.
They talk about the dead as if they are no loss, they have their new fancy word, co-morbidity.
Simple pre-conditions, which can be controlled by modern medicine. Or Old Sucker, they just lost 4 or 5 years, big deal.
Each of those people wanted live, as much as I did.
They talk about the, as if they needed to be discarded, junk.
Good to get rid of them, no loss.

None of them wanted to die and I bet you they fought as hard as possible, to not loose live.

No Mr Death is not a wimp, he is deadly, more than anything else.

groeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoehllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

 

Has nothing to do with my miserable character, it is about the will to live and the understanding how great live is.

What actually sucks about it, we have just one chance at it.

Git me cloned, and than with all the experience and knowledge, copied into a 20 year old body, geil.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-025, posted 2020-09-026, 11:24 GMT +2, #12452.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-026, posted 2020-09-026, 11:59 GMT +2, #12455.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Saturday, 2020-09-026 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
֍֍֍*** 33,047,067 ***֍֍֍
THE WORLD WENT OVER 33,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON 2020-09-026
THE WORLD WILL GO OVER 1,000,000 COVID-19 DEATHS TODAY, 2020-09-027
INDIA WILL CROSS OVER 6,000,000 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES TODAY, 2020-09-027

+293,968 new C19 cases over the day before, more than the Saturday before.
TOTAL C19 cases: 165 nations with 1,000+, 97 with 10,000+, 60 with 50,000+, 38 with 100,000+, 4 with 1,000,000+.
There have now been 998,285 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,307 of them were on this day.
INDIA has reported more than +1,000 new deaths per day for 26 days in a row and for 30 of the last 33 days total.
---------------------------------------------------------
We are now only -1,715 away from 1,000,000 (ONE MILLION) total COVID-19 deaths worldwide.
INDIA is now only -5,466 away from 100,000 total COVID-19 deaths in that nation.
---------------------------------------------------------
Worldwide 7-day-rolling averages: a record-shattering +295,778 new C19 cases per day / +5,345 deaths per day
+1,124 Indian, +737 US-American, +732 Brazilian, +405 Mexican & +335 Argentinian new deaths were recorded on this day.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 65,360 (+1,597 over the day before)
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The world again had at least 3 peak days this week with over +300,000 per day (2020-09-023, 024 & 025), but on Saturday, 2020-09-026 it followed the same pattern as the week before and ended the day in the low +290,000 range. One important factor to note here is that the USA is NOT the main driver of a new worldwide surge in cases, as it was 3 and 2 months ago.

Today, 2020-09-027, will be a sad day in our world's history for those who are following the statistics from WorldOMeter, for our world will most definitely cross over 1 MILLION total confirmed COVID-19 deaths today. For historical perspective: the world crossed over 10,000 deaths on Thursday, 2020-03-019 (just days after I began this thread) and in a little more than 6 months time, the death toll across the world has increased 100-fold. That is fact. And I regret to say to you, the reader, this is likely not to be the only million mark in deaths we will reach as far as this virus is concerned.

The number of worldwide daily deaths (5,307) for the day being analysed was more than the corresponding day one week before (5,142).

An extrapolation that I have running at the USA analyses projects that the USA will hit 250,000 deaths by 2020-11-018 (we are currently circa 5 days ahead of the projections) and 300,000 deaths by early January, 2021.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 1 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day: Moldova.

The way the rubrik table is presented, you can easily (and mathematically) see how the week has developed until its end.

Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +50 C19 cases and above):
​

India, which passed Brazil in total cases closing in on 3 weeks ago, is now +1,272,466 (the day before: +1,208,992) cases ahead of Brazil and -1,296,180 (the day before: -1,342,613) cases behind the USA. As you can see, at this moment, India is almost exactly half-way between the USA and Brazil and today, 2020-09-027, that statistic will shift and India will then be closer to the USA in total cases and farther away from Brazil. In other words, the balance will shift today, exactly three weeks to the day when India first overtook Brazil in the C19 rankings. The Indian state of Maharashtra now has 1,321,176 total C19 cases (22.05% of all of India's cases), now replacing the US-State of California as the state or province within a country with the most C19 cases. Were Maharashtra a country, it would be rank 4, ahead of Russia.

Also, both Colombia (806,038 ) and Peru (800,142) have both passed the 800,000 mark, well ahead of Mexico and it is quite possible that both of them will hit 1,000,0000 cases in the same week, probably by middle of October, 2020. BTW, the US-State of California currently has 807,578 total C19 cases.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

Lebanon is on the +1,000 list for the second time in a row.

If you look at the list of 33 countries with more than +1,000 new cases, 10 are from the Americas, 11 are from Europe, 11 are from Asia (including 4 from the Middle East) and 1 is from Africa. As you can see, the Americas are no longer the driving force behind new daily cases, but rather, the phenomenon is being spread around the world.

​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
​

The top 4:

USA, total deaths: 209,177 / 20.95% of worldwide deaths (20.99% the day before). The USA is currently expected to hit 250,000 deaths Mid-November, 2020.

Brazil, total deaths: 141,441 / 14.17% of worldwide deaths (also 14.17% the three days before). Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 711 per day, from 2020-09-013 = +96 days from now: 2020-12-020.

India, total deaths: 94,534 / 9.47% of worldwide deaths (9.41% the day before), -5,466 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,167 per day, from 2020-09-015 = +15.3 days: 2020-10-001. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

Mexico, total deaths: 75,844 / 7.60% of worldwide deaths (also 7.60% the day before). No extrapolation for 100,000 deaths quite yet.

Combined (520,996), the top four nations currently represent 52.19% of all total deaths in the world to-date (was also 52.17% the day before).

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

6 of the top 10 nations are from the Americas.

India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005 and has maintained it until current.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

58 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 58, 10 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil, Germany, Spain, Italy and France. Currently at 9.8 million tests performed, Turkey is poised to cross over the 10-million line in the next days.


END-FACIT: on 2020-09-026, the world travelled from 32.75 million total C19 cases over the day before, hopscotching over 32.8, 32.9 and 33.0 million to land at 33.05 million. The world will go over 34 million confirmed COVID-19 cases Wednesday, 2020-09-030.

-Stat

 

Worth noting that Brazil is anticipating that it will begin using the Sinovac vaccine in mid December and if it is as effective as it appears then extrapolations will need to take that into account.

That said it would be interesting to run extrapolations based upon the knowledge gained to date and compare them to the actuals following the vaccinations in order to determine for ourselves how effective they are in real terms. I

t would be even better if Worldometers added a column for number of vaccinations by country.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-09-...-19-vaccine-in-December-U4cmr83YqY/index.html

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-026, posted 2020-09-026, 11:59 GMT +2, #12455.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-026, posted 2020-09-027, 10:00 GMT +2, #12460.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for for Saturday, 2020-09-026 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
-THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE FALL SURGE JUST AS MUCH AS THE SOUTH & WEST-
******* 7,287,561 *******

+43,377 new COVID-19 cases over the day before, more than the Saturday before.
WISCONSIN was rank 2 in the +cases on this day, whereas TEXAS was rank 5 - a shift in the +case geographical distribution.
FLORIDA will go over 700,000 total COVID-19 cases today, 2020-09-027.

There are now 209,177 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, +737 of those deaths were recorded on this day.
OKLAHOMA went over 1,000 total COVID-19 deaths on this day. OK's mortality rate: 1.20%, under the national mortality rate.
USA 7-day-rolling average = 45,737 new infections & 765 deaths per day. Tendency for both rubriks: rising.
14,096 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-45 over the day before).
TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 103.36 million

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The number of daily deaths on this day (737) was more than the corresponding day in the week before (657).

It should be noted that a pretty major surge in +cases is hitting the world right now. Last week, our world had 3 days in a row of +300,000 cases per day; this week, the same thing happened, with most every day about +10,000 more cases than the day before, the exception being Saturday, 2020-09-026. I expect to see a proportionally quiet Sunday, as usual. But important to note is that, unlike the phenomenon from June/July into August of 2020, this time, the USA is not the main driver of the world-wide surge. Rather, India is, and a large number of smaller nations all combined are showing daily plus totals that would have made your skin crawl just 4 months ago. However, as Dr. Anthony Fauci just said in the last 96 hours, live, on TV, an average of even "just" +40,000 per day is still way too much as we enter into the regular flu-season as well, increasing the danger of a so-called "twin-demic".

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 1 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day: OKLAHOMA.

The way the rubrik table is presented, you can easily (and mathematically) see how the week has developed until its end.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

Of the 15 states on the 1,000 list from 2020-09-026, 6 are from the Midwest (with Wisconsin rank 2, to note, and Missouri as well, though often called a border state), 6 are from the South, 2 are from the West and 1 is from the Northeast.

So, right now, the Midwest is powering the newest "surge" every bit as much as the South.

When you move that list outward to the 500-list (31 states), that then fleshes out the rest of the South, the Midwest and some more of the West, but of the top 31 states, 4 are from the NE: NY, NJ, MA and MD.

Here too is a border state between the NE and the MW: PA (called an "acela state"). People are often unsure of exactly how to categorize Pennsylvania.

The outlier, for a third day in a row, where it is hot and dry and there is lots and lots of space for people, is: Utah. To put this into perspective, Utah's total positive cases per population (21,693) is nominally HIGHER than California's (20,439) and is also considerably higher than Ohio's (12,844) in spite of the fact that in terms of population, Utah looks like a midget compared to California. The point is: this beast is really, really, REALLY infectious and it apparently doesn't matter if your climate is wet or arid, cold or hot, humid or dry as bones, flatland or mountainous, landlocked or with lots of ocean. The second point is: we are seeing a realignment of the +1,000 and +500 rankings, with the disease being spread more uniformly throughout the nation. Now, whether or not the wildfires in the West and multiple hurricanes/storms in the Golf have suppressed case numbers simply because people are in distress and can't even get to a testing station or test otherwise, remains to be seen.

For my own way of thinking, the most alarming states in the statistics are currently Utah (the dry climate mentioned above) and Indiana, because Indiana is climbing up there very fast and has less large cities than neighboring Ohio, ergo, more new cases in Indiana are surely coming out of rural areas as well.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

​

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FACIT: we ended the 48 hour period analysed with 209,177 total US deaths from COVID-19.



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than the population of MARYVILLE or just slightly less than the population of ROCHESTER, never to get the one or the other back again.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013). 200,000 deaths were reached 5 days before, on 2020-09-015.
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:



This means that we are currently at +3,980 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 4.7 days ahead of the next milestone-projections. This value is lower than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,577), to note. As you can see, 8 days before, the USA hit the 200,000 death mark five days ahead of the milestone-projections.

I know it may be tiring to see these statistics all the time, but I do think it's important to follow the data-path every day and to put it in print, for posterity's sake, so that the naysayers cannot say "nay" without looking totally ignorant.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Indeed, all three of your points are interesting.

We already have a good comparison case in point, although for some reason, no one is talking about it: RUSSIA.

RUSSIA IS EXPERIENCING A SECOND WAVE
​

More than 6 weeks ago, Russia claimed to have a fully functioning vaccine and yet, since then, both + cases and +deaths are on the rise in Russia. Since Russia has already released it's figures for today, let's take a look:



You can see that from the very day that Russia cracked the 1,000,000 total C19 case mark, all of a sudden, both +cases and +deaths began to rise again. Fascinating, eh?

As for WorldOMeter including vaccination stats in the future, I can see that happening, only, with so many different ones bound to be in the running, how will we differentiate between the one and the other? That could end up being a prickly subject.

 

I take everything that Russia alleges with a grain of salt the size of Siberia!

 

Thank goodness COVID hit Australia extending into winter.
Masks, PPE, hygiene and fluvax has minimised our flu outbreak too.

 

I was wondering about that.

Are there any links that mention the reduction of the incidence of the seasonal flu in Oz?

Reason I ask is because mask wearing in the States is what I deem to be inadequate so Dr Fauci's warning about a "twin-demic" of both Covid and the seasonal Flu has a sound basis.

 

Aaaaand good morning, PFers!

This evening my time, Yom Kippur (the Jewish High Holy Day of Atonement) will begin and I will be offline for about 27 hours from this evening until late Monday evening.

However, this time around, a buddy of mine in Germany, who has edit-permission for my online excel tables, will be updating the COVID-19 figures as they come in for me. He may even screenshot the WorldOMeter tables for me but I think he uses a different screengrab program. The long and short of it is that there will be analyses for today, but they will come out very late tomorrow (my time), probably close to midnight my time (6 PM on the East Coast of the USA).

After Monday, I am likely moving to a newer system that is lighter for me, namely, just linking every day to the Excel tables and posting screenshots of the rubrik-worktables and then only doing one analysis per week, on Mondays, for Monday-Sunday of the week before. This stuff has been costing me about 2 hours per day to prepare, and publish and soon, my professional life will simply not allow it anymore. So, soon, you will not see so much of the daily minutae from me, but rather, a more sweeping weekly overview. C'est la vie.

-Stat

 

The countdown begins:

 

“The major disparity follows a trend that has seen a massive decrease in cases since social distancing measures were implemented across Australia in response to the coronavirus.

In the first two months of 2020, Australia was on track to surpass its record-breaking start to 2019, before cases essentially halved in March compared with the same time last year. This was followed by an even more dramatic 98% drop in April, when only 307 laboratory-confirmed cases were recorded compared to 18,691 in the corresponding period in 2019.

Dr Kerry Hancock, Chair of the RACGP Specific Interests Respiratory Medicine network, told newsGP she was ‘incredibly surprised’ by the results and described the fall in cases as ‘dramatic’.

‘We’re seeing now in the influenza statistics the impact that [good hygiene and social distancing] can have in reducing transmission,’ she said.

‘It just tells us the value of physically distancing, good hand hygiene, avoiding mass gatherings [when sick], cough etiquette and being aware of all those other strategies to avoid the transmission of infectious diseases.“


https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/physical-distancing-and-good-hand-hygiene-australi

 

We are grateful for the gargantuan task you’ve undertaken so that we can be well informed and understand that you can’t do it forever.

 

Many thanks and "good on you" for crushing the Flu season by 98%.

 

INDIA SURPASSES 6,000,000 CONFIRMED C19 CASES:​

It took India only 12 days to get from 5 million to 6 million.

 

THE WORLD GOES OVER 1,000,000 (ONE MILLION) CONFIRMED COVID-19 DEATHS:
​

This just happened. A truly horrifying moment. We have reached this moment less than 9 full months into this pandemic.

May the memories of those who have died from COVID-19 be a blessing. AMEN.

-Stat

 

So, I'm going offline now. Wishing you all a good rest of your Sunday. Till tomorrow evening, then!