The Unique US Failure to Control the Virus

Yes. Where did I talk about ventilators in that post, pray tell? I didn't. I talked about stocks of PPE. You mentioned ventilators. Then I said ventilators don't really matter that much. Then you said I asked a question and you responded and I said it doesn't matter. Again, I said that VENTILATORS don't matter, not PPE, so my initial question was about PPE, not ventilators. Gee!

 

I posted about the vent stockpile. You replied commenting about the stockpile and I replied to your about the stockpile and now you are pretending were were discussing something other than the ventilators.

 

I think that the Trump administration and the states Governors are doing a good job in general. All that remains, which has always been the goal, is a vaccine. I also think that our greatest vulnerability in this is the pandemic of obesity and general poor health of Americans. So while the onus for the virus may be on China. Our obesity and poor health is all on us.

 

When will you understand that I was talking about the stockpile of PPE, not ventilators? You then mentioned ventilators and I replied that they don't really matter.
In your place I'd have simply said "oops, my bad." Anyway, moving on. I'm tired of this back-and-forth. It's not what I'm here fore. Have a nice day.

 

Our greatest vulnerability seems to be based around personal responsibility. Many have been asked if they were willing to sacrifice a very small amount of individual discomfort for the benefit of society and a very large number have responded with a general **** off. The same people demanding we open completely and without exception are the same ones refusing any compromise to aid in their demands.

 

Perhaps not everyone has a job where they don't have to do any actual work but still get paid.

 

Except the cases of Covid that began in the US came from people locked up in close proximity to each other.

Look at the NY data. Most of the infections came from people who were quarantined at home.

 

If they stay at home for 3 weeks then the virus would be confined inside that home

 

I see.

And the millions of people entering and leaving the country every day?

The people who don't have jobs that allow them to stay at home?

You realize that most of the people who died caught Covid indoors, yeah?

Why would you think a virus would disappear after 3 weeks anyway?

 

Your last phrase is a misunderstanding of the nature of the data. How do you suppose the virus got to those quarantined at home? It doesn't magically jump to a home with no vector transmitting it. It got to homes because the lockdown was partial and imperfect and someone brought the virus home. In my state it is estimated that 40% of the population was under some exemption from the lockdown, not to forget that there was no enforcement for the 60% of non-exempt one so many simply didn't obey the orders. Even gardners, landscapers, and swimming pool cleaners were considered "essential" and lockdown-exempt in my state. Some other countries like Italy and Spain practiced a much more complete lockdown and did get the transmission down.

As for the virus disappearing in 3 weeks, you are right that it would have been insufficient. Epidemiologists have said that 6 weeks of *complete* lockdown would have stopped the chain of transmission. Spain practiced 12 weeks.

Also, the fact that most people who died caught it at home is just a statistical correlation, because it mostly kills the elderly and the elderly were the ones most likely to be home (as they are retired for the most part) but again, someone must have brought the virus to them. The issue resides in incomplete lockdowns, not the idea that lockdowns are bad and cause more infection, like the Spain case proved - their complete lockdown brought the number of deaths to 0, 1, or 2 for weeks in a row.

 

There could be many ways. Most of the people who died early on were all elderly people living in nursing homes. That's where much of the outbreaks happened.

Let's not forget NY encouraging people to come out and attend Chinese New Year festivities, telling everyone that Covid was nothing to worry about.

People were forced to stand in lines outside stores waiting to go in, ironically forcing more people to expose themselves. The "six foot" thing is entirely arbitrary and no one really knows if that is effective.

For all we know, transmission can occur from animals and insects...rats and mosquitoes are huge spreaders of disease, viruses and bacteria.

The states that were hit the hardest had some of the most draconian lockdown measures, so that's no indication of the effectiveness of a "quarantine".

People out running around Walmart aren't really quarantined, are they?

How would epidemiologists know 6 weeks of a complete lockdown would prevent a new virus? How do they know it wouldn't cause more deaths than it prevented?

Answer: they don't. They're guessing.

 

Several misconceptions there. This virus is NOT transmitted by animals and insects, rats, and mosquitoes. Gee!
States hit the hardest with draconian lockdown measures - we had NO states with the kind of draconian measures seen in China and Europe. None. Not a single one. The most draconian ones pale in comparison to what was done elsewhere.
How do epidemiologists know? By studying the incubation period, the number of days when an infected person sheds the virus, and how late a spreading window overlaps with the next asymptomatic incubating case. It's no guess. It's data.
All your other descriptions are examples of how the lockdowns have failed in the US, my point exactly. I could describe to you how it was done elsewhere, e.g. in Italy, but I have to go now. If you are interested, I'll tell you later.

 

Oh right.

I forgot, some people did a couple studies on this new virus and how it's transmitted and now we know what we need to know about the virus. That's that I guess.

There were no draconian measures in China. There were draconian measures between China and one city: Wuhan.

The people in Wuhan were allowed to travel internationally. They just weren't allowed to travel into the rest of China.

Data is never conclusive.

I mean consider what you're saying. You're suggesting that the studies done on Covid 19 in the past 9 months or so are conclusive. Doesn't sound like science to me.

 

Most infections still happen at home. That’s why I think concentrating all our efforts into stopping spread in public places is kind of silly if we won’t take mitigations seriously other places. Depending on timing of the shutdown three weeks may not be enough for large families if they had a presymptomatic individual in the home at time of lockdown. It all depends on the behavior of family members in the home.

To be clear, I’m not talking about a shutdown where a family member goes shopping 3 times a week for hot pockets and toaster strudel and then at home acts like being home somehow stops viruses from doing what they do.

 

Unless you shut down EVERYTHING that's not going to happen.

Clearly if most infections are happening at home, that means one person in the family going out to shop at Walmart is bringing it back. Staying inside out of the sunlight puts you at more risk than being outside, so everyone in the home gets it.

The only other alternative, if no one is catching it with their mask on in Walmart, is that the virus is entering the home in some other manner than human to human transmission.

It's like the irony of people running to some hospital or clinic to get tested for Covid......which is probably the place you're most likely to be exposed to it in the first place.

It's still way overblown.

There is no reason healthy people under 60 should be quarantined.

The only people who need to be quarantined are people more at risk of Covid than being murdered.

 

That’s why people who have the resources should have been prepared to do that.

I stayed home for 3.5 months and was in the sunshine all day every day. I understand some people only have a balcony in their apartment but that’s something. Spread in homes could be slowed significantly if people opened windows and actively ventilated their homes. But then it wouldn’t be “comfortable”.

People are undoubtedly catching it with masks. Especially ones going around confronting those without masks and standing there in prolonged shouting matches or physical altercations. I’ve been in public very little. But from what I’ve seen, spread is mostly a result of lack of common sense.

It would be interesting to know the stats on that. I agree it’s a place you should only be if you have a really good reason. The media did a great disservice by using the missteps in testing rollout as a political weapon. It caused people to incorrectly believe everything would be great if we just had more tests. They are just another tool and one that is very often misunderstood.

Sure. Every issue that can be politicized is overblown by someone. That’s why I prefer to look at the facts, not what talking heads or Facebook memes are saying. I mean that stuff is fun to look at sometimes and it’s mildly entertaining, but when it comes to decisions on our health they aren’t useful.

My commentary on a lockdown was to show how things could be done if people were serious and prepared or if authoritarian government was serious about ending the pandemic. I’m vehemently opposed to the authoritarian approach and pragmatic enough to realize very few want to be responsible enough to prepare for ending a pandemic voluntarily.

On this issue and other issues on this forum I’m not here to force my beliefs on anyone. I’m attempting to get people to recognize false premises, reject false dichotomies, and think critically instead of toeing party lines.

I think self quarantine is best for those who are concerned about being infected.

 

The assumptions that staying home and/or wearing a mask persist.

I challenge anyone to wear their little paper mask into a CS gas chamber and tell me how effective it is at stopping a virus that can easily defeat the mask and/or simply enter through your eye.

Most people can't stay home for 3.5 months, I'm afraid. That's a luxury most do not have.

Again, unless you're in a high risk group, it makes as much sense staying at home for 3.5 months to prevent yourself from being murdered as it is to die of Covid.

 

I brought up false dichotomies for a reason. It wasn’t random chance.

 

Some are conclusive. Some aren't.
As for Draconian measures: Italy voted into law a new felony - "aiding an epidemic" - with sentence guidelines of 12 years in prison, put the Army on the streets to patrol and enforce it, and indicted 40,000 people. That brought any violation of the lockdown to a screeching halt. In the Philippines the army was instructed to shoot people on sight if they violated the lockdown. But you think it's over here that we were Draconian. Right.

 

Really gets those meglomaniacal juices flowing eh.